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SPX: Follow Up of the Short Term EWP


The McClellan Oscillator with the thrust above the zero line is confirming that the SPX corrective pattern from the November lows has began a new up leg.

NYSE McClellan OscilatorChart

As I mentioned yesterdays going forward a strong McClellan Oscillator will most likely trigger a buy signal of the Summation Index.

NYSE Summation Index Chart

If this is the case the EWP from the November lows will extend considerably higher and bulls will enjoy several weeks/months of more upside. In addition since the up leg off the November 16 low is corrective it will not complete the assumed wave (X) from the 2009 lows, therefore once this up leg is over the following pullback eventually it will be bought again.

Regarding the long-term count, I maintain the wave (X) option but I don't have a confident count. At the moment I am looking at the following idea, in which case price would be now unfolding the wave (I) of a large Ending Diagonal:

Dow Weekly Triple Zig Zag Chart
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Lets move on to the current up leg:

In my opinion the corrective EW pattern from the November lows, has morphed into a Triple Zig Zag. This means that from the February 26 low price will unfold another Zig Zag up.

Therefore we are now in the wave (A) of an ABC sequence.

Reminder: Once again we are dealing with a corrective up leg hence it will cause uncertainties regarding the correct location of price within the EWP.

Dow Daily Chart
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I am not sure if at yesterday's hod the wave (A) as been completed since we did not have a spike of short-term breadth extremes (TRIN, TICK) hence having the eod above the BB is not a warranty of an exhaustion move.

If the wave (A) is in place the assumed wave (B) pullback will most likely be a shallow one.

Regarding the short-term price action a Double Zig Zag can be considered completed but without a retracement in the range 1521-1514 (Blue Count) I cannot rule out an extension higher (Black Count).

Dow 15-Minute Chart
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Probably TLT and VIX will give clues regarding the feasibility of the SPX wave (B) pullback.

  • TLT should close Monday's gap down at 118.27, within a likely lengthy wave (B) pattern:

TLT Daily Chart
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  • VIX so far is diverging from SPX (No lower low) and it could be forming a bullish falling wedge:

VIX 60-Minute Chart
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