• 856 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 856 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 858 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,258 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,263 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,264 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,268 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,268 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,269 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,270 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,271 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,275 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,275 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,276 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,278 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,278 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,282 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,283 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,283 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,285 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets

Here's a summary of my post-CPI tweets:

  • #CPI +0.7%/+0.2% ex food & energy. Y/Y core back up over 2% at 2.004%. And going higher.
  • Gasoline prices +9.1%, so there you go for everyone who thought Jan's number was low.
  • Economists had been looking for a "soft" 0.2% on core core, and got it at +0.17% rounding up to +0.2%.
  • y/y rise in Owner's Equivalent Rent rose to 2.14%, a new post-2008 high. That's on the way to 3% or 4% over the next 1-2 years, at least.
  • Accelerating Major groups: whoa...EVERY major group accelerated y/y. All 8 of them. I've never seen that.
  • Food & Bev: 1.625% from 1.558%. Housing 1.929% from 1.805%. Apparel 2.426% from 2.115%. Transp 2.361% from 0.712%.
  • Recreation 0.890% vs 0.554%. Educ/Comm 1.740% from 1.622%. Other 1.803% from 1.574%. Only close one: Medical 3.107% from 3.095%
  • #CPI didn't surprise on the upside, but there is just nothing weak about this number. Anywhere.
  • Well, core goods I guess. +0.3% from +0.4%. But core services went to 2.6%, mainly on housing strength. If core goods ever recover...

The mainstream media and many economists will yawn at this number and miss the big picture. There is just nothing important here that is weak. In particular, every major group accelerated on a year-on-year basis. That's amazing. It's not unprecedented, I am sure, but I don't remember seeing it happen before. Usually some are accelerating, some are decelerating, even when inflation overall is accelerating or decelerating.

CPI Analysis Table

In particular, housing continues to quietly accelerate, as we've been predicting. It is going significantly higher.

Core inflation is going to accelerate further, although the next several months have solid year-earlier comparisons of +0.22%, +0.22%, +0.20%, and +0.21%. But we think we'll see core inflation nevertheless accelerate over that time frame, and then there are six easy comparisons in a row with nothing above 0.17%. By year-end, we still think we will see core of 2.6%-3.0%.

You can follow me @inflation_guy!

 


Enduring Investments is a registered investment adviser that specializes in solving inflation-related problems. Fill out the contact form at http://www.EnduringInvestments.com/contact and we will send you our latest Quarterly Inflation Outlook. And if you make sure to put your physical mailing address in the "comment" section of the contact form, we will also send you a copy of Michael Ashton's book "Maestro, My Ass!"

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment