NO CHANGE OF MY PREFERRED SCENARIO
Today just a brief update:
Probably this is my last daily post until March 28 (From next Friday I will switch my computers off so that I can be full-time with my children for the school spring-break). Until Friday If I see anything worthwhile I will post charts on Twitter/Stocktwits.
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I am firmly convinced that the up leg from the November lows is not impulsive. Instead of a 5-wave up leg price is unfolding a Triple Zig Zag.
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The major consequence of being corrective (7 -wave up leg) resides in the implications for the long-term pattern, since the idea suggested in my last weekly update could become the front-runner option: http://www.thewavetrading.com/2013/03/10/weekly-analysis-0310/
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If this EW count is correct there is still one more missing up leg (it will have to be impulsive). This wave (C) up can match the length of the previous wave (A) = 78.61 points.
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Therefore the current pullback in order to be considered a wave (B) has to grow in size or time-wise.
- The obvious target for the assumed wave (B) is located at the February 19 high (last break out) = 1531 where we now also have the rising 20 dma.
I suggest to monitor SPY because the 2 consecutive gaps down from last Thursday's Hanging Man candlestick reflects that it is probable that price has completed the assumed wave (A) from the February 26 lod and consequently it is now unfolding the wave (B).
The target should be located in the range of the 20 dma - March 5 gap up which I don't expect to be closed.
Yesterday's Inverted Hammer is suggesting not much conviction from the bears but downs side risk remains elevated as long as bulls do not reclaim the 10 dma (with an eod print above).
If the correction is not over then VIX, despite yesterday's Spinning Top, has to challenge the March 5 gap down at 14.
Obviously next Wednesday's FOMC meeting adds a lot of uncertainties regarding how the market will react to Ben's statement.
