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My goal is to establish the most likely path that the price of a particular asset will undertake and profit through ETF instruments both on…

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DAX: Follow Up of the Short Term EWP

I maintain unchanged the long-term count discussed on February 18:

"So far we have a 7 -legged structure therefore EW wise we should not rule out an 11-wave structure. For this reason I maintain the scenario that price from the March 2009 low is unfolding a Double Zig Zag or a Triple ZZ, with the (W) established at the July 2007 peak, the wave (X) at September 2011 low, hence now price is involved in either unfolding the wave (Y) or the wave (Z)."


Today I rule out the Double Zig Zag therefore going forward I will be working with the assumption that price is unfolding a Triple Zig Zag

If price is unfolding a Triple Zig Zag then from the September 2011 lows we need a Double Zig Zag sequence = ABC = Y; X; ABC= Z or a 7 -wave structure.

I can make the case that the first Zig Zag was completed at the March 2012 peak (ABC = wave Y).

The second Zig Zag began at the June 2012 low (wave X). With the wave (A) completed at the September 2012 peak and the wave (B) established at the November 2012 low.

Since from the November lows we have a 3-wave up leg, as I suggested in my last up date of the long term EWP on February 18, I am considering that the last wave (C) of (Z) will have to unfold an Ending Diagonal.

DAX Weekly Chart
Larger Image

In the next weekly chart I have labelled the Triple Zig Zag scenario with the Ending Diagonal wave (Z) option.

Furthermore I am suggesting that the wave (I) of the Ending Diagonal has been already established at the March 15 high.

If this is the case we need to see a weekly lower high.

DAX Weekly Triple Zig Zag Chart
Larger Image

From the March 15 high, in my opinion price is unfolding a double Zig Zag that can belong to a larger Zig Zag down that will establish the wave (II) of the Ending Diagonal project.

The key issue here is that once the corrective down leg is over price has to establish a lower high, maybe at the 20 dma.

DAX Daily Chart
Larger Image


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