• 557 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 557 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 559 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 959 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 963 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 965 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 968 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 969 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 970 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 971 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 972 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 976 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 976 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 977 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 979 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 979 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 983 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 983 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 984 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 986 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Gold and Silver - Bullish Hopes In Bear Market, Trend Wins

What happened?! is the question so many are asking about Friday's waterfall in prices. A better question is, "Why?" Outside of the insiders, no one really knows. Yes, there can be some fairly cogent explanations, lots of glib answers, but no one knows, for sure.

What we do know for sure is that the market is always the final arbiter. Throughout the decline of the past nearly few years, there has been a continued glimmer of hope for a turnaround in recognition of the infinite printing of fiat, countries drowning in debt, and the only viable solution, at least in the Western world, has been more debt!

Who issues that debt? The central bankers, IMF, EU, Basel Committee, all unelected, non-represented factions that run the lives of the Western world under the sanction of the officially-elected-but moneychangers-beholding governments.

Friday, 12 April 2013, was a sign of desperation. It may become known or apparent at some point in the future, but if we strictly adhere to the message of current developing market activity, as displayed in the charts, almost all market surprises occur within the trend. As our Commentary title states, amidst all the bullish hopes for PMs to soar to considerably higher levels, the market trend wins, as it always does.

Our comments have not been immune to those hopes, as we have strongly advocated the purchase and holding of physical gold and silver, but the comments have also been qualified with the advice to not buy futures, simply because the charts were sending that very message. The advice to buy and hold physical gold and silver is as important as ever. We have no clue what prompted the Western central bankers to crush the markets lower, but it will ultimately fail, as history as amply proven.

"If you can keep your head when all around you are losing theirs... If you can trust yourself when all men doubt..." ~ Edited from Rudyard Kipling's "If"

The point is to keep a level head in what appears to be turmoil for the real turmoil is on the other side, the opposition to PMs as a known alternative to the issue of worthless fiat. We cannot say nothing has changed, for price just got lower, but the attempt to destroy whatever opposes fiat debt is obviously a high priority for central planners, and their message is very clear: they will stop at nothing to continue their fraud. Nothing.

Instead of trying to figure out the unknown, look at what is known for certain, and that is the results of the decision-makers who cannot hide their intent from the trail left behind, price and volume "footprints" for everyone to see, or for those who choose to see what too many overlook or ignore.

One point worth remembering is the charts reflect the paper market, and the paper market is in the total control of central banks, so you see what they want you to see, and what they want you to see is the apparent failure of PMs to do well. They are succeeding, to that extent. Everything else central planners are doing is failing, and there is little reason to believe they will succeed in this game plan, either.

The trend is always the number one factor, then the location of price within the trend. Gold is moving sideways, but still within an overall bullish condition, based upon the facts presented. The current location within the trend is neutral to slightly negative.

Monthly Gold Chart
Larger Image

Insiders will never reveal their "hand," especially the central banking cabal, but we can read what they are doing, overall, by the clues left behind. Within the down channel, there was a definite clue in the weakness of the last rally that failed to reach the upper channel line. Weak rallies within a bear trend inevitably lead to lower prices. As we always say, one can never know how the market will unfold, and certainly no one was prepared for how current market activity unfolded on Friday.

Curiously, the overall volume for the week was not that strong. We construe that as an indication that the number of weak sellers and stops was not that great.

Weekly Gold Chart
Larger Image

We presented this Bearish Spacing in our last commentary, when we stated: "Here is a closer "read" of developing market activity. The trend is down, and the bearish spacing is just that, bearish. The three points made on the chart are indisputable facts. You can have a contrary opinion, but opinions are not facts, no matter how strongly held."

The comment stresses opinions are not facts. The trend is very much a fact. [First par. after 2nd chart, plus 3rd chart, Comex Prices Manipulated? http://bit.ly/YYX5HV]

One truism to always keep in mind about the markets is: "Anything Can Happen." Friday was one of those days. Remember it in that context.

Daily Gold Chart
Larger Image

Silver is already under the 50% retracement from swing low to swing high, which is a general indication of a weaker trend. The bullish spacing is smaller than gold's, but price is holding support a little better.

As with gold, no one knows how much lower silver can go, and there is no evidence of a turnaround.

Monthly Silver Chart
Larger Image

We certainly held out "hopes" for a turnaround in previous analyses, still not arguing against the tape for taking a long position in the futures, and as a consequence, did not even consider the short side. That is what a bias will do.

As pointed out below, given the manner of how price unfolded within the TR, it cannot be a surprise that price continued lower. The extent of Friday's decline was a surprise, and it goes back to the importance of knowing, "Anything Can Happen."

Weekly Silver Chart
Larger Image

All anyone can do is wait to see how the market reacts to Friday's sell-off. It never pays to guess or anticipate, and no one anticipated how price declined so much. Let the market inform us as to what the next development will be, for the market is never wrong, and the market never lies. Trust it.

Daily Silver Chart
Larger Image

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment