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The State of the Trend

Two weeks ago we concluded that market breadth is just bottoming out, and the pendulum should be swinging in the overbought direction. As the chart below shows, that swing is now almost complete:

CIT Dates Chart

On Friday, Reuters reported that May consumer sentiment is the highest in nearly six years. This is confirmed by the Bull/Bear ratio which also reached multi-year highs on Friday:

SPX Chart

Although extreme readings in this indicator by no means signal that a market crash is coming, they nevertheless indicate that the majority of those who want to participate in the current upswing are already in. Considering that the SPX is within reach of its upper channel target, and nearing overbought market internals, we expect that a sideways/down phase should commence shortly:

SPX Channel Chart
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