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How Long This Stock Trend?

Elastic band

The stock market has once again extended so far that taxi drivers are once again experts in the stock market.

And yes all the stories are true:

- Central banker are allowing easy money (QE).
- Central bankers are actually buying stocks.
- The short sellers are giving up and buying back their positions.
- USA stock fundamentals are not bad (yet), but they are not that great either (YOY% Revenue down).
- Company share buy backs have reduced the supply of stock float
- The SP500 has broken into never seen before market highs

Now for a couple of stories you may not know:

- The stock market is playing a game of chicken with the FED. The FED wants assets price to slow down (talk of tapper QE etc.), but the stock market is saying ..."I dare you to stop me, because you know what will happen!"..
- The stock market acts like a rubber band. Rubber bands revert to the 'mean' and or break (1929, 1987, 2008). This market law will never change.

A good rule to follow is never ever pick a top, but it is sure fun speculating when there might be one. The SP500 is in a window of 'momentum is about to end'. The FED started this trend, and they can end it.

The window.

S&P500 Chart 2010, 2011 and 2012

Investing Quote...

..."I later told my students, 'think in waves' [of price and volume]"... ~ Richard D Wyckoff

 

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