• 556 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 557 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 558 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 958 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 963 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 965 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 968 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 968 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 969 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 971 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 971 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 975 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 975 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 976 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 978 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 979 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 982 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 983 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 983 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 985 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Chinese Economy Grows at Slowest Pace in 13 Years; What's Next for China?

Inquiring minds note the growth slowdown in China: China's economy stumbles in May, growth seen sliding in Q2.

China's economy grew at its slowest pace for 13 years in 2012 and so far this year economic data has surprised on the downside, bringing warnings from some analysts that the country could miss its growth target of 7.5 percent for this year.

"Growth remains unconvincing and the momentum seems to have lost pace in May," Louis Kuijs, an economist at RBS, said in a note. "The short-term growth outlook remains subject to risks and we may well end up revising down our growth forecast for 2013 further."

May exports to both the United States and the European Union - China's top two markets - both fell from a year earlier for the third month running.

Imports fell 0.3 percent against expectations for a 6 percent rise as the volume of many commodity shipments fell from a year earlier.

The volume of major metals imports, including copper and alumina, fell at double-digit rates. Coal imports fell sharply.

Economic growth slipped to 7.7 percent in the first quarter, down from 7.9 percent in the previous quarter. Both the International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development cut their forecasts for China's economic 2013 economic growth in May, to 7.75 percent and 7.8 percent, respectively.

But the further loss of momentum in the April and May could prompt the central bank to try to give the economy a lift, said Jian Chang, China economist for Barclays in Hong Kong.

"We had expected an L-shaped economic recovery in China and that the growth would stabilize at around 7.9 percent," Chang said.

"We now think China's growth will stabilize at around 7.6 percent (this year). The possibility for the central bank to cut interest rates is now rising," Chang said.


Pollyanna View

I certainly have no difficulty believing reports that China would slow dramatically given I have been calling for exactly that. Rather, my problem is the Pollyanna view that China is going to stabilize anywhere near 7 percent. 2 percent is more like it.

Given declines in energy usage, I rather doubt China is actually growing fast as claimed right now. For more on the China growth debate, please see ...

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment