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SPX: Follow Up of the Short Term EWP


My preferred scenario, which was calling for an incomplete EWP of the advance from the November lows, is in danger of being wrong.

As well, I suggested that given the corrective bounce off last Thursday's lod, if the up trend off the November 16 low is still in force, a complex corrective pattern, such as a triangle should have been in the cards (Blue path).

The pattern from the May 22 high is clearly corrective but if bulls fail to defend the range 1610.50 (50 dma) - 1597 then the southbound route towards the red target box will most likely prevail.

SPX Daily From November 16 Chart
Larger Image

Bulls have two days left to prevent the scenario of a deeper correction since the loss of the 10 wma (Weekly close) will increase the odds of at least a mean reversion to the 20 wma which today stands at 1578.

SPX Weekly Chart
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Regarding the EWP so far unfolded from the May 22 high in my opinion we have a DZZ concluded at the June 6 lod that can either be the wave (A) of a larger Zig Zag or Triangle, if 1598 is not breached (Blue count) or the pattern could morph into a TZZ with an unknown outcome (Larger corrective pattern underway or even the end of the correction if the lower low is achieved with an impulsive decline in conjunction with positive divergences).

Anyway it looks unlikely that the down leg in progress (Off the June 10 lower high), since it is corrective, will end the EWP.

SPX 60-Minute Chart
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