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Toby Connor

Toby Connor

GoldScents is a financial blog focused on the analysis of the stock market and the secular gold bull market. Subscriptions to the premium service includes…

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Stocks in Dangerous Territory

As I alluded to in my previous report both stocks and gold are due to mean revert. Short-term the stock market is getting significantly oversold and if we get a down day tomorrow I would expect some kind of bounce off of the 1600 level. If that bounce fails and we break below last Thursday's low it should confirm that stocks have begun an intermediate degree correction.

$SPX S&P 500 Large cap Index INDX
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Since I think there is significant risk that the cyclical bull market that started in 2009 is now topping I would take a break of the $1600 level as confirmation that an intermediate level decline has begun.

Based on how artificially far the Fed has driven this rally, this should be a significant decline, possibly even filling the gap from January 2.

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If one has retirement funds invested in the general stock market I think after four years and a 153% gain it's probably time to say "close enough" and exit this Frankenstein monster of a market that the Fed has created.


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