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My goal is to establish the most likely path that the price of a particular asset will undertake and profit through ETF instruments both on…

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SPX: Follow Up of the Short Term EWP


Just a brief update.

Price is approaching the May 22 high. It is obvious that this move is extended hence the probability of a multi-day "overbought" pullback is large.

As I discussed last week I remain doubtful that the advance from the June 24 low is unfolding an impulsive pattern but only the price behaviour once we have the kick off of the expected "relief" pullback will help to define the correct pattern, knowing that an impulsive advance would give credit to a potential multi-month up leg, while if this advance is proven to be corrective then it should mean that from the May 22 high price is involved in forming a larger corrective pattern. (Maybe a Triangle)

So far I can make the case that price is shaping a bearish rising wedge. Usually a wedge is followed by a sharp decline. If price will unfold a wave (4) pullback it should not breach the former resistance now support located at 1654.

SPX 60-Minute Wedge Chart
Larger Image

But even if the pattern is not impulsive price must dip below the 50 dma = 1635 in order to regain confidence on the scenario of a larger corrective pattern.

SPX 30-Minute Chart
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