• 518 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 519 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 520 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 920 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 925 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 927 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 930 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 930 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 931 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 933 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 933 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 937 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 937 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 938 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 940 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 941 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 944 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 945 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 945 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 947 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

The Sentimeter: 9.22.13

The Sentimeter remains in neutral territory. Two weeks ago, the "dumb money" was extremely bearish, and this was a bull signal. Buying arrived where and when it should have. This past week, Federal Reserve's announcement that they were NOT taking the punch bowl away moved the SP500 to all time highs. The bears of two weeks ago were left on the sidelines hoping to get a dip so they can chase prices higher.

Yet, by the end of the week, didn't it seem like Bernanke fumbled the ball? Why was the taper off the table when he had told the markets for months that they were going to start with a measly $15 billion dollar reduction per month? Is the economy that weak? Has Bernanke lost all credibility? The markets reversed all of the "taper off" gains by the week's end.

While we can speculate what it all means, the truth is that shallow dips, like we had 3 weeks ago, lead to marginal highs at best. It has been nearly 2 years since the last "real" bull signal when investors were extremely bearish. Over the past 2 years, any modest selling has been met with either the introduction of a new Federal Reserve asset purchasing program or the proclamation (i.e., jawboning) that asset purchases will continue essentially forever. The market needs to clear itself of the weak hands, and the best way to accomplish this is selling. Anything short of this will lead to the same old thing -- shallow dips and marginal new highs!!

See the Equity Market Investor Sentimeter below, which is our most comprehensive sentiment indicator. This indicator is constructed from 10 different data series including opinion data (i.e., how do you feel about the market?) as well as money flow data (i.e., where is the money going?). The current state of equity market investor sentiment is NEUTRAL.

Sentimeter: 9.22.13
Sentimeter Legend

 


TacticalBeta offers a 21 day FREE TRIAL (no credit card required): 1 CLICK SIGN UP

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment