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Lara Iriarte

Lara Iriarte

I have been using the Elliott wave principle to analyse up to five markets a day since 2008. I began Elliott Wave Forex (originally ForexInfo.us)…

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SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis

Last week's analysis of Silver expected downward movement for a second wave correction which is exactly what has happened. With more of this structure now to analyse I can now calculate a target for it to end for you.

Silver Daily Chart
Larger Image

Intermediate wave (B) is unfolding as a simple zigzag. Minor wave A subdivides as a five, and minor wave B is now a complete "three" (a double zigzag).

At 27.417 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. Minor wave A lasted 43 days, and minor wave B lasted a Fibonacci 34 days. I would expect minor wave C to last between 34 and 43 days, or thereabouts.

The parallel channel drawn here is Elliott's technique for a correction. Draw the first trend line from the start of minor wave A to the end of minor wave B, then place a parallel copy upon the end of minor wave A. I will expect minor wave C to find resistance at the upper edge of this channel, and it is most likely to end there.

Within minor wave C minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 20.512.

Silver One-Hour Chart
Larger Image

Within minor wave C minute wave i is complete, and minute wave ii is unfolding as a deep zigzag which is incomplete. I will expect more downwards movement for another two to three days before minute wave ii is completed.

At 21.158 minuette wave (c) would reach 0.618 the length of minuette wave (a). This would bring minute wave ii to just below the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i at 21.496.

Ratios within minute wave (a) are: subminuette wave iii is 0.033 short of equality with subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of subminuette waves i or iii.

Minuette wave (b) is an expanded flat correction: subminuette wave a subdivides as a three; subminuette wave b subdivides as a three and is a 115% correction of subminuette wave a; subminuette wave c is just 0.021 short of 1.618 the length of subminuette wave a, and it subdivides as a five wave impulse.

We can now use Elliott's technique to draw a channel about this downward zigzag of minute wave ii. Draw the first trend line from the start of minuette wave (a) to the end of minuette wave (b), then place a parallel copy upon the end of minuette wave (a). If it gets down that far I would expect minuette wave (c) to find support at the lower trend line, but I would expect it to be more likely to end mid way within this channel.

I would expect minuette wave (c) downward to take about two or three days to complete. When it is done I will expect a trend change and the resumption of the upward trend. The next wave up should be a third wave, and should show strong upward momentum.

When this channel is breached by subsequent upwards movement then I would have confidence minute wave ii is over, and that minute wave iii would have begun.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 20.512.

 

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