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Melt-Up Monitor

A Regression-to-the-Exponential Mean Required


Released 11/25/13


Exponential Market Profiles Have Emerged


We Are Here


Traditional Regression-To-The-Linear Mean Required


An Illiquid Near Term Melt-Up Profile

The lower pane in the following chart of the week of data for the S&P 500 tells you what you need to know. The selling days are heavy volume and the buy days are thin, low volume illiquid melt-ups...


Carry Trade Consolidation Driver
Euro Likely to Weaken Temporarily Relative to Yen

The Japanese Carry Trade (aka "ABE-nomics) is consistently shown on a daily basis to be a controller of daily liquidity.

The Liquidity Pump of $65B/Month is being leveraged up significantly.

This is about to temporarily correct despite the Yen weakening as presently expected.

  • JPY Must Continue to Weaken Expected
  • EUR Must not Weaken Expected The Surprise Factor


Stoxx Chart - Fibonacci Time Extensions

The banking situation in the CEE (Central and Eastern Europe) is deteriorating rapidly. Poland has confiscated Pensions, the Czech Republic now want the ability to debase their currency, Slovenia has Cyprus like banking problems etc.


The Only Question: Who Is Left To Buy This S&P 500 Market?


Complacency Now Palpable


Euphoric Levels Excessive


Trading The Short Term "Pressure Relief" Trigger$


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