• 755 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 755 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 757 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,157 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,161 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,163 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,166 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,167 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,168 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,169 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,170 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,174 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,174 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,175 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,177 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,177 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,181 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,181 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,181 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,184 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Two Recent Cycles to Watch

Over the last several months two cycles have caught my eye. The first, and better known, is the seven year cycle (Figure 1). Since 1939 it has expanded or contracted beyond what could be called seven years only twice. As the last major high was in 2007, the next seven year cycle high is due this year, 2014.

Figure 1

Chart: seven year cycle

The second cycle is the Presidential Cycle. Looking at a chart showing the cumulative monthly return of the Dow during mid-term election years, 1901-2010 (not shown), a peak is expected in April. However, looking at a chart of mid-term elections taken solely from secular bear markets as defined by the Long Cycles of George Lindsay (1921-1942, 1962-1982, 2002-present) we see a top is due in February (Figure 2).


Larger Image

Figure 2

Secular Bear / Mid-term Election Years


Conclusion

I continue to look for an end to the 2009 bull market. Based on Lindsay's basic movements and Middle Section forecasts, I believe the top was seen on 12/31/13. But even if I'm wrong, the top isn't far away.

 


If you're wondering how 1921-1942 could be considered a secular bear market, that question will be the focus of the January Lindsay Report which is due this week. Acquire your copy at Seattle Technical Advisors.com.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment