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Two Recent Cycles to Watch

Over the last several months two cycles have caught my eye. The first, and better known, is the seven year cycle (Figure 1). Since 1939 it has expanded or contracted beyond what could be called seven years only twice. As the last major high was in 2007, the next seven year cycle high is due this year, 2014.

Figure 1

Chart: seven year cycle

The second cycle is the Presidential Cycle. Looking at a chart showing the cumulative monthly return of the Dow during mid-term election years, 1901-2010 (not shown), a peak is expected in April. However, looking at a chart of mid-term elections taken solely from secular bear markets as defined by the Long Cycles of George Lindsay (1921-1942, 1962-1982, 2002-present) we see a top is due in February (Figure 2).


Larger Image

Figure 2

Secular Bear / Mid-term Election Years


Conclusion

I continue to look for an end to the 2009 bull market. Based on Lindsay's basic movements and Middle Section forecasts, I believe the top was seen on 12/31/13. But even if I'm wrong, the top isn't far away.

 


If you're wondering how 1921-1942 could be considered a secular bear market, that question will be the focus of the January Lindsay Report which is due this week. Acquire your copy at Seattle Technical Advisors.com.

 

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