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Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets

The following is a summary of my tweets following the CPI release today. You can follow me @inflation_guy. I am about to get on a plane to visit a reinsurance company to talk about inflation, so forgive me if I don't add much color to the original tweets (as I usually do).

  • CPI +0.3%, +0.1% ex-food-and-energy. About as-expected but core a little soft in that range. 1.71% is y/y core.

  • Another 0.0% for Medical Care CPI. It's hard to get core goods rising when Medical Care remains flaccid. That will change.

  • Core #inflation ex-housing is down to only 1.1%! Core goods still in deflation dragging it all down...-0.1% vs +2.3% for core services.

  • Owner's Equiv Rent to 2.49% y/y. Clearly accelerating and a big risk to core going forward.

  • Accel Major Grps: Housing, Apparel, Transp, Other (64.8%) decel: Food/Bev, Med Care, Recreation (28.4%). Educ/Comm unch.

  • Med Care CPI only +2.01% y/y. That's very unlikely to continue.

Big risk to core remains housing, which accelerated a heady +0.1% y/y, which is a big move for a ponderous group like Housing. Not surprising - I've been forecasting it for a long time, and it's happening.

 


You can follow me @inflation_guy!

Enduring Investments is a registered investment adviser that specializes in solving inflation-related problems. Fill out the contact form at http://www.EnduringInvestments.com/contact and we will send you our latest Quarterly Inflation Outlook. And if you make sure to put your physical mailing address in the "comment" section of the contact form, we will also send you a copy of Michael Ashton's book "Maestro, My Ass!"

 

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