• 142 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 147 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 149 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 152 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 152 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 153 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 155 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 155 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 159 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 159 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 160 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 162 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 163 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 166 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 167 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 167 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 169 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  • 170 days Europe’s Economy Is On The Brink As Putin’s War Escalates
  • 173 days What’s Causing Inflation In The United States?
  • 174 days Intel Joins Russian Exodus as Chip Shortage Digs In
Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

90% Chance For the US Recession to Begin During 2014Q2-2015Q1

Q: Have Bernanke, Krugman and Yellen predicted any recession, in their career, before it happened?

A. N-O-NO.

Q: Have Bernanke, Krugman and Yellen predicted recoveries before they happened?

A: YES, always.

Q: Do they predict that recovery would continue for years, at least the next three years, with a growth above 2%?

A: All the time.

Q: Does Wall Street ever predict that an earnings decline of 35-90% could happen within the next two years?

A: Never.

Q: Does it happen?

A: Yes, with a fair amount or regularity (pl. see the attached graph).

Any honest person would call such behavior purposely misleading and fraudulent, no? They remain oblivious to the business cycle despite its permanence. Economists and Wall Street commit "periodic," or cyclical fraud, very predictably.

Q: Who have the best record at predicting recessions?

A: Financial markets, most notably, commodities, the Scam Market and the US Treasury markets, e.g., the yield-curve inversion.

I have developed a methodology of characterizing the business cycle using two financial market indicators, S&P500 and US Treasury bond futures. Based on the attached graph I am predicting that a US recession is very likely, close to 90% chance, to begin during 2014Q2-2015Q1 with most likely date being September 2014. This should coincide with earnings declines during 2015-16. I also expect the coming recession to be much more severe than the last one and S&P 500 to make a new low.

S&P500 Real Earnings 1979-2014

Ratio of S&P500 to Long Bond Futures 1997-2014

Enjoy the Super Bowl! The next one would most likely be played during a recession. Go Broncos!!

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment