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Lara Iriarte

Lara Iriarte

I have been using the Elliott wave principle to analyse up to five markets a day since 2008. I began Elliott Wave Forex (originally ForexInfo.us)…

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SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis

Last analysis expected a little more downwards movement to a target just below 19.327 before a trend change and a third wave up.

Price did move lower to reach 19.002 and has turned up. However, I still would like to see the channel on the daily chart clearly breached before I have confidence in this trend change and the targets calculated.

XAG/USD Weekly Chart
Larger Image

The bigger picture for Silver expects a large grand super cycle second wave correction may be unfolding downwards.

The correction may be at grand super cycle degree, or it may be a fourth wave correction at super cycle degree.

Both of these possibilities require more downwards movement for the structure to complete.

The structure unfolding downwards is a double zigzag. The first zigzag in the double is labeled primary wave W. The double is joined by a "three" in the opposite direction which is a contracting triangle labeled primary wave X.

The second zigzag is incomplete and labeled primary wave Y. Within the second zigzag intermediate wave (B) is a zigzag and is incomplete.

Within intermediate wave (B) the final wave for minor wave C upwards is incomplete. At 25.49 minor wave C would reach equality with minor wave A. It should end about the upper trend line.

Intermediate wave (B) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (A). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 34.515.

XAG/USD Daily Chart
Larger Image

Within minor wave C minute waves i and now ii are complete. However, a clear channel breach of the blue parallel channel containing the zigzag of minor wave B is required to provide trend channel confirmation that minor wave B is over and minor wave C is underway. When there is a full daily candlestick above the channel and not touching the upper trend line then I would have confidence in this trend change.

Within minor wave C minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i at 21.872. If price keeps rising through this first target, or if when it gets there the structure for minute wave iii is incomplete, then I would use the second target. At 23.646 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

I have drawn an acceleration channel about minute waves i and ii (pink upwards sloping channel). Minute wave iii should breach the upper edge of this channel and should show an increase in upwards momentum. Along the way up any corrections should find support at the lower edge of the channel.

Within minute wave iii no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 19.002.

 

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