• 366 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 367 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 368 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 768 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 773 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 775 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 778 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 778 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 779 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 781 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 781 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 785 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 785 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 786 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 788 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 789 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 792 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 793 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 793 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 795 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

Modern monetary theory has been…

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Welcome to Art Basel: The…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

The Great Inflation of 2014

For over a year now I've been expecting 2014 to be the year when the unintended consequences of five years of QE come home to roost. By the end of the year we are going to have a massive inflationary spike in commodity prices that will collapse the global economy. It's all going to start with a final manic melt up phase in the stock market over the next 3-4 months. Make no mistake this bull market will not be over until the NASDAQ tests it's all time high above 5000.

NASDAQ Daily Chart

Over the next 3-4 months we are going to see the public pile into the stock market exactly like they did with tech stocks in 2000 and real estate in 2005.

Completing the final bubble phase in the stock market is the first component necessary for the Great Inflation. During this period commodities are going to start to rise in a stealth rally that everyone will ignore because they will be focused on the stock market. The CRB has already broken out of its three-year downtrend.

CRB Daily Chart

At some point later this year, probably in May or early June, the stock market parabola will collapse. This is the second component necessary to initiate the Great Inflation. When the crash begins the inflation stored in stocks will flow into the commodity markets. This process will be exacerbated as Yellen reverses the taper and doubles down on QE to try and reflate the stock market bubble. This will be like throwing gasoline on a fire, and will drive commodity prices through the roof into the end of the year and probably the spring of 2015.

SPX Daily Chart

The Fed is going to make the exact same mistake they did during the last decade. Their easy monetary policy has produced a bubble in stocks just like it produced a bubble in real estate in 2005. When the bubble implodes the Fed will try to reflate. They won't succeed in reflating the broken stock market parabola, but it will trigger an explosion in commodity prices. The rapid spike in commodity prices will collapse the global economy just like it did in 2008.

SPX Daily Chart 2

Because the artificial and manipulated bear market of the last year has severely damaged the supply side of the market, I expect the precious metals will be the largest beneficiary during the Great Inflation of 2014.

Gold Daily Chart

By this time next year all of the Chinese/Russians/Indians, etc. who have been scooping up gold over the last year are going to look like geniuses.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment