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Paul Rejczak

Paul Rejczak

Writer, Sunshine Profits

Stock market strategist, who has been known for quality of his technical and fundamental analysis since the late nineties. He is interested in forecasting market…

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Stock Trading Alert: Uncertainty Following Recent Rally

Stock Trading Alert originally published on Feb 18, 2014, 6:52 AM


 

Our intraday outlook remains bearish, and our short-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bearish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

The U.S. stock market indexes gained between 0.1% and 0.8% on Friday, extending their recent rally as investors continued to buy stocks at higher levels. The S&P 500 index got close to its January 15 all-time high of 1,850.84 (Friday's daily high at 1,841.65). The nearest important resistance is at 1,840-1,850. On the other hand, the support remains at 1,800-1,810, marked by the November-December consolidation, among others, as we can see on the daily chart:

S&P 500 Index: Daily Chart
Larger Image

Expectations before the opening of today's session are virtually flat, with index futures currently mixed between -0.1% and 0.0%. The European stock market indexes have lost 0.1-0.5% so far, following weaker-than expected economic data release from Germany. Investors will now wait for some U.S. economic data announcements: Empire Manufacturing number at 8:30 a.m., NAHB Housing Market Index at 10:00 a.m. The S&P 500 futures contract (CFD) trades slightly below its recent highs, fluctuating within a rather narrow range. The resistance is at around 1,840, and the nearest support is at 1,825-1,830, as the 15-minute chart shows:

S&P 500 futures contract (CFD): 15-minute Chart
Larger Image

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract (CFD) is in an analogous short-term consolidation, just below its recent highs. The resistance is at around 3,670, and the support is at 3,640-3,650. For now, it looks like a topping consolidation, as the market might retrace some of the recent uptrend:

Nasdaq 100 futures contract (CFD): signs of a topping consolidation
Larger Image

Thank you.

 

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