• 525 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 526 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 527 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 927 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 932 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 934 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 937 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 937 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 938 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 940 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 940 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 944 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 944 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 945 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 947 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 948 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 951 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 952 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 952 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 954 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Trading On The Mark

Trading On The Mark

Trading On The Mark

Our work is grounded in several technical methods. We make use of Elliott Wave, Gann techniques, Fibonacci relationships in price and time, cycles, and other…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Gold Probably Still Seeking a Lower Low

In recent months, we have been tracking three different scenarios for gold prices, and have been numbering them scenarios #1, #2, and #3. Our scenario #1 has fallen out of favor, so this post only describes scenarios #2 and #3. As always, when we're discussing multiple Elliott wave scenarios, the "what if's" can become a bit confusing and convoluted. Please ping us with questions if we can help clear anything up.


Scenario #2: gold needs a lower low

Of the surviving scenarios for gold, scenario #2 would have price seek a lower low before much longer. This scenario has price tracing out a five-wave move down from 2011 high, with the final wave "[v]" not yet formed. A good area for a downward reversal into the fifth wave would be near the channel boundary shown on the monthly chart below. This month, that is in the vicinity of 1,350.

GC - Monthly Chart

If price seeks a new low, it is possible (although not certain) that it would be below the level of the 2008 high. For a variety of reasons, many traders will be watching that level, and there are likely to be stops placed just below that level by traders currently in long positions. Thus, if price slips a little bit below that level, it will surprise many traders, as markets often do.

A more detailed study of resistance levels and eventual lower price targets on a weekly timeframe can be found at our website.


Scenario #3: The low is in (for now), and gold will climb for several months

On the other hand, scenario #3 says that an intermediate low was seated several months ago, and price will probably continue to rise for several months as part of a lengthy sideways-upward correction that could last years.

If price rises much above the channel boundary shown on the previous charts, then it is quite possible that it may be reaching for an intermediate high "[a]" near Fibonacci target areas at 1,436 and 1,591.. That would be followed by a lengthy down-up pattern, but it probably would not produce new lows for a few years at least. (Unfortunately for long-term gold bulls, this scenario actually calls for substantially lower lows far out on the horizon.) As we indicated above, this is not our favored scenario, but it is a viable alternate. The monthly chart below summarizes scenario #3.

GC - Monthly Chart

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment