• 260 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 260 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 262 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 661 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 666 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 668 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 671 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 672 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 672 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 674 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 674 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 678 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 679 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 679 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 682 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 682 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 685 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 686 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 686 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 688 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

How Millennials Are Reshaping Real Estate

How Millennials Are Reshaping Real Estate

The real estate market is…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

2014 - The Year of Commodities

Charts are telling me that 2014 should be a great year for Commodities and Miners and I expect a period of financial market turmoil for the US Market. I believe that we are very close to an important corrective move as the Market is due to top in March 2014. The Rhythm of the Dow Jones Index is telling me that a major top could already have been printed:

Rhythm of the Bull market, Dow Jones
Larger Image

The current Cyclical Bull Market has reached the same period duration as the previous one (2003-2009). The second leg up of this Bull Market has also been reached 2 months ago. Therefore the time window for a top has been completed and I think we should not be surprised if a strong down move begins in the coming days.

SPX Major Top
Larger Image

The following chart puts in perspective the major tops and lows in the US Market. If the market keeps pace with the previous rhythm, I expect a major top in 2014 and a major low in 2016.

SPX Big Picture Tops and Bottoms Chart
Larger Image

Here are the Gold and Silver big picture charts. The current Gold Double Bottom Pattern occurs right on the symmetry guideline. Silver is also in a process of a Double Bottom Pattern and back tested twice the Base Pattern neckline.

Big Picture Gold Patterns Chart
Larger Image

Silver Big Picture Pattern Chart
Larger Image

Since the beginning of the year we can notice that some money flow was coming into Commodities, Metal and Miners. The market gave us some important clues already at the beginning of 2014 - some ratio charts were clearly telling us that early January was a buy signal for all the Mining stocks. They also put in perspective that money flow was going to come into the Metal and the Miners sectors. Here you can see the Dow Jones/Gold and the Miners/Bonds ratio charts showing that investors are leaving the US Market and the Bonds to come into the Metal and Miners Sectors:

Dow/Gold Ratio Chart
Larger Image

Miners/Bonds Ratio Chart
Larger Image

On the following chart we can notice that Miners should outperform the Gold Metal:

Gold/Miners Ratio Chart
Larger Image

Below is the ratio chart of SPX/CRB that also shows that money is leaving the US market and is coming into Commodities. There is still a lot of downside potential move.

US Market and CRB Index Ratio Chart
Larger Image

I believe that most institutional investors have already anticipated a turn in the US Market and started to invest in the Commodities sectors. Metal, Miners and Agriculture should be the best sectors that will outperform in 2014. Large profits will be made by those who keep in mind the big picture.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment