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Gregor Horvat

Gregor Horvat

Gregor Horvat, based in Slovenia, has been in the forex markets since 2003. He is a technical analyst and individual trader who has worked for…

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Elliott Wave Analysis: GOLD, OIL and SP500

Finally, gold broke to the downside in this week, out of triangle within a triangle if we consider the substructure of our red wave e). Keep in mind that wave e) can itself be a triangle as well! Notice that prices accelerated lower in impulsive manner, once already through 1255 first projected level but there is room for a drop to 1230. Only a five wave rally from the low will suggests that something is changing but for now that's clearly not the case.

GOLD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

GOLD 4-Hour Elliott Wave Analysis Chart

Crude oil has turned bearish this week, away from 104.00-104.50 resistance where we were looking for a wave (d) high. Notice that market turned nicely down and took out the support channel line that confirms the bearish view, for a three wave drop into wave (e) back to 100-101 area. Once those levels will be seen, we will turn bullish as big triangle since March could then be near completion.

OIL 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

OIL 4-Hour Elliott Wave Analysis Chart

S&P500 is at the all-time highs, and now finally approaching our 1920 short-term target. Notice that price is actually already at resistance area, as market reaches triangle measurement zone. At the same time we can see a slight negative divergence on the RSI that suggests limited upside pressure, thus a turning point may follow soon. For now, however trend remains in bullish mode, but decline close to 1884 would definitely be a bearish sign as bullish alternate count would then also be invalidated. So in the best possible scenario market will turn bearish at the start of June for strong decline down in wave C).

On the other-hand we will go with the current bullish trend and new wave count if market will make extensions above 1950.

S&P500 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

S&P500 4-Hour Elliott Wave Analysis Chart

 


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