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The State of the Trend

Mid May we introduced this IWM chart, and speculated that as long as the Russell 2000 ETF stays above key support level at 107 - 108, the SPX is likely to continue making new highs on its way to reaching its 1950 price target:


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The first new SPX high came after IWM bounced off support, and the next after it bounced off the 38% retracement level of the May up swing. The DJIA and the Qs followed suit and made new highs as well. The only laggard remains the IWM.

While evaluating the likelihood of a continuation of the current upswing, it helps to consider the historical record which shows that the average upswing for the SPX and for stocks within the SP500 is 4 days. On Friday, the SPX swing count was 13, or more than triple the average (OT Signals scans for stocks, indices and ETF's with record swing counts in the following regions: USA and Canada, Asia and Australia, and Europe). And while that doesn't mean that a crash is imminent, it certainly suggests that a sideways/down move consolidating recent gains is to be expected next. As usual, oversold market internals, a bearish daily pattern and a break below the Pivot line will give the early exit signal:


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Gold never made it above the 50% retracement, and broke below March-May support (completing a record 14 day down swing). It's currently resting at the 75% retracement level of the December-March upswing. That remains the only area of support before a retest of the December lows:


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