6/11/2014 5:49:30 AM

Good morning Traders,

As the morning sets up, we continue to see stock markets holding up, oil up near highs and gold starting to initiate a move. But as for stocks, our measure suggests muted returns in the short term. This is not the time to put new money to work:

That being said, we don't have a signal to do anything yet, so we'll be patient. On to some weekly data:

Based on this level, one would expect we're within a week or two of establishing a top. However, one variable that doesn't align also came out this week:

This indicator has been trending lower as markets continued higher. We have a recent example where that happened back in 2011. It doesn't mean that it will happen here, just that the potential exists. We'll stay tuned for the potential of the market to break down here, but be patient.

Regards,