Stock Trading Alert originally published on July 14, 2014, 7:21 AM:
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.
Our intraday outlook remains neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: neutral
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
The main U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.2-0.6% on Friday, extending their recent move up, as investors' sentiment improved ahead of quarterly earnings releases, among others. Our Friday's neutral intraday outlook has proved accurate(link). The S&P 500 index extended its short-term consolidation, as it remained above month-long upward trend line. The resistance is at around 1,980-1,985, marked by July 3 all-time high of 1,985.59. The next resistance is at the psychological level of 2,000. On the other hand, the level of support remains at around 1,950-1,690, marked by recent local lows. For now, it looks like a flat correction within long-term uptrend, as we can see on the daily chart:
Expectations before the opening of today's session are positive, with index futures currently up between 0.3% and 0.4%. The European stock market indexes have gained 0.5-0.8% so far. Investors will now wait for some quarterly earnings releases. The S&P 500 futures contract (CFD) is in an intraday uptrend, following last week's downward correction. The nearest important resistance is at around 1,975, marked by recent highs, and the support level remains at 1,950-1,960, as the 15-minute chart shows:
The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract (CFD) is relatively stronger, as it trades close to long-term high. The resistance level is at around 3,915-3,920, and the level of support is at 3,890-3,900, among others:
Concluding, the broad stock market extends its consolidation, as the S&P 500 index trades slightly below its early July all-time high. We remain neutral, as there may be some more volatility following medium-term uptrend. We think that it is better to stay out of the market at this moment, just to avoid low risk/reward ratio trades. Earnings season can be a time of increased volatility as investors react to news from the companies. So, it may be better to cut back on your trading or even move to the sidelines completely, especially following recent run-up. We'll let you know when we think it is safe to get back in the market.
Thank you.
