"No warning can save people determined to grow suddently rich" - Lord Overstone

  • 3 mins OPEC ‘Supergroup’ Keeps Oil Exports Subdued
  • 2 hours One Belt, One Road, One Direction for Precious Metals
  • 3 hours Vicious Trio Keeps Bitcoin in Chokehold
  • 5 hours How Infrastructure Is Driving A Commodity Boom
  • 7 hours What’s Really Happening With Venezuela’s “El Petro?”
  • 9 hours Gold Bull and Bear Markets
  • 1 day 5 Big Drivers of Higher Inflation Rates Ahead
  • 1 day U.S. And China To Face Off Over Aramco IPO
  • 1 day Gold Bulls, Brace Yourselves – Fed Hikes Are Coming!
  • 1 day Stocks Fail to Hold Gains, But Still No Correction
  • 1 day Cryptojacking: A New Threat Vector To Critical Infrastructure
  • 2 days Why The Next Oil Boom Will Be Fueled By Blockchain
  • 2 days 5 Things Investors Should Know About China this New Year
  • 2 days Is The South Korean Crypto-Drama Finally Over?
  • 2 days Miners’ Rally? What Rally? Watch Out for More Fake Moves!
  • 2 days Four Percent 10-year Note Yield Will Be a Floor Not a Ceiling
  • 2 days The End Is Near
  • 3 days 5 Record Breaking Gemstones Even Billionaires Can’t Buy
  • 3 days Irredeemable Currency De-tooths Savers
  • 3 days CFTC Offers Bounty For Crypto Pump And Dump Whistleblowers
Permanent Market Support Operations

Permanent Market Support Operations

The greatest flaw in central…

Irredeemable Currency De-tooths Savers

Irredeemable Currency De-tooths Savers

An irredeemable currency system traps…

U.S. Dollar Bull and Bear Markets

U.S. Dollar Bull and Bear Markets

The idea of endlessly repeated…

Reacquainting with Mr. Fat Head; AKA HUI Monthly

In February of 2013 we noted the big fat HEAD on the HUI's massive H&S pattern. It was reviewed again in April of 2013 after it broke the neckline in a very bearish move. Mr. Fat Head's technical objective was and is 100.

Why is this being revisited? Because I have gotten a couple emails noting that it is showing up again out there amidst the very bearish backdrop. If anything, if every gold bug on the planet is planning for 100, the ingredient is in place for this final indignity that they are so well prepared for, to maybe not happen.

But a target is a target and it is there for a reason; namely that its source - Mr. Fat Head in this case - has not been eliminated from the picture. Here he is updated...


Larger Image

There are other considerations...

  • MACD is crossed up
  • RSI is well below 50 and its EMA 50
  • AROON is and has been trend down
  • HUI is below thick resistance around 250
  • It has notable support at current levels
  • A higher low to 2008 is still in place
  • A trend is a trend until it is broken, and it is down on all time frames

A lot of people think TA sucks because a lot of TA's try to baffle people with b/s, ascribing greater power to charting than it deserves. Still, it is a handy tool as it irrefutably gave warning signals on the bear market. Signals 1, 2 (which is when NFTRH went into full risk management mode as HUI lost 460 in November of 2012) and 3.

Dial ahead to today. A final and terrible drop may indeed come about. But here again I remind you not to take anyone with just a chart and an overly bullish or overly bearish thesis too seriously. It stimulates the greed and fear response and right now everyone in the gold sector is well gripped in fear. There is much more to any given narrative.

For reference on why charting in a vacuum in not good I trot out to you my one time 888 projection for HUI (I just love owning this one ) based on a pattern that was every bit as bullish as Mr. Fat Head is bearish. Just as I ask you now to take 100 for what it's worth, I noted the same thing for the 3 Snowmen (888) back then. Targets are just targets/measurements, not directives.

For reference I offer my own screw up and the S&P 500's target off a very similar pattern that has happily gotten most of the way to target.


Larger Image

TA is a guide (subject to ongoing revision), not a director. HUI has a target of 100 and so many other potentials in play. Only week to week management of not only the technicals, but especially the macro fundamentals will see us through.

 


Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates (including Key ETF charts) and NFTRH+ chart/trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment




Don't Miss A Single Story