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Nyse versus Nasdaq Divergence

10/9/2014 6:17:41 AM

Good morning Traders,

Wednesday's sharp move higher - was it a function of short covering (which would be short lived) or was it a bottom? Here's our view.

To answer it, let's first look at the internals of the market:

NASDAQ Cumulative Breadth

The Nasdaq looks ugly... How about the NYSE?

NYSE Cumulative Breadth

Much healthier...

What about our forecast?

SPY 2014 Forecast Model

This supports our view of a potential bounce into 10/17, then the market gives it up big time... That being said, we've seen this forecast invert before, so I'd turn even more bullish if the market keeps testing lows into 10/17, which is options expirations. Markets tend to reverse around expirations.

As we approach the end of the year, I will start providing my 2015 forecast to our clients. Our clients get all our charts updated weekly. Visit www.stockbarometer.com to learn more.

And a quick update on Gold:

Gold to Gold OI Option Volume Ratio

This indicator suggests the bets on gold are approaching if not at a bullish level. But for gold to rally, stocks need to weaken a bit more. Or the dollar needs to weaken a bit more. Dollar weakness would support the market as well. So there are a lot of cross currents here that we want to digest over the next few days before making any substantial bets...

Regards,

 

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