• 528 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 529 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 530 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 930 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 935 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 937 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 940 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 940 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 941 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 943 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 943 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 947 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 947 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 948 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 950 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 951 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 954 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 955 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 955 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 957 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Michael Pollaro

Michael Pollaro

Michael Pollaro is a retired Investment Banking professional, most recently Chief Operating Officer for the Bank's Cash Equity Trading Division. He is a passionate free…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

The End of QE3, Trouble Ahead for the Bulls?

The Federal Reserve's latest asset purchase program, QE3, is coming to an end. What was once an $85 billion a month program, one in which at its peak had been goosing the financial markets and economy at an annual rate of $1.0 trillion - and over its 27 month life will have pumped $1.7 trillion of money into the economy - is going to zero. Given the outsized impact QE has had on the growth of U.S. money supply and thus the U.S. economy, we say investors take note, especially those furthest out on the risk curve, because what wasonce your primary tailwind could soon become your greatest headwind.

Here's why...

Recapping the tenets we presented here, here, and here, once an economy is subjected to a bout of monetary inflation, whether that be via direct central bank money creation or via money (and credit) creation by the fractional reserve banking system, an unsustainable, artificial economic boom is born, whereby malinvestments (bubbles if you like) are created that sooner or later must be liquidated. And whether that bust takes the form of a hyperinflationary bust or a deflationary bust, bust we will get. The form the bust takes will depend on the course of the inflation. If the central bank/banking system pursues an inflationary course, by throwing continual and importantly ever larger doses of money (and credit) into the economy, the bust will take the form of a hyperinflationary bust - a collapse in the value of the currency and with that a breakdown of the entire economy. If instead the central bank/banking system ends its money creation activities or even moderates that increase in a material way, the bust will take the form of a deflationary bust - a healthy liquidation of the malinvestments made during the boom and with that a commensurate fall in the prices of those same malinvestments.

Click here to continue reading the rest of the article.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment