• 104 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 104 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 106 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 506 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 510 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 512 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 515 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 516 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 517 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 518 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 519 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 523 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 523 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 524 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 526 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 526 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 530 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 530 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 531 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 533 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Stock Barometer

Stock Barometer

Stock Barometer

Stock Barometer is completely independent. We have never and will not ever accept compensation from any company whose stock we recommend. Our goal is to…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Holiday Trade

Sign Up
CLICK HERE to Sign up for the Stock Barometer FREE Newsletter now!
Also, if you're a facebook person, we also have a facebook page where we provide some additional research - click below and like our page if you want to get more updates: https://www.facebook.com/

11/24/2014 6:20:57 AM

Good morning Traders,

Friday's trade saw a potential reversal as prices gapped up and closed lower. So while they did break out to new highs, they also flashed a potential reversal pattern. Turn on futures this morning and we have bonds gapping lower. That will provide some push for stocks. And given the week, we'll start seeing lighter holiday trade. Bonds were looking to break higher, but the push lower this am means the bearish story will be on hold.

Over the weekend, I read a report talking about the move in oil denoting the weakness overseas. I'm more in the camp that it's all about the dollar. I wrote about it in our free weekly newsletter that comes out every weekend. If you're not a subscriber, click here and sign up. We provide more research there over the weekend with special offers on our other traders.

Here's what I mean regarding the dollar:

US Dollar versus QQQ

This level of the dollar is key. It's basically marked the top since 2006! So a break out here would be bearish for stock market. Right now it's advance is great if you travel overseas. But it's putting pressure on global economies. Thus the action they've taken over the past week - which our markets are perceiving as bullish for now.

Here's another view of the dollar's seasonality:

USD Seasonality

Here's the impact of the dollar on oil:

USO Seasonality

And finally, looking back at our popular cycle chart:

10/20/40 Week Cycles

So seasonally, the market tends to top this week and consolidate or move lower into the first week or two of December then peak into year end. Friday's trade set the stage for weakness, but we'll need a weaker close today to confirm the bearish signal of the market.

On Gold and Oil, we're closing in on a trade. I'm more bullish on oil and bearish on gold, but we'll need to see more evidence before taking positions. So stay tuned...



Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment