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My goal is to establish the most likely path that the price of a particular asset will undertake and profit through ETF instruments both on…

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IBM: Building a Base

From the July high we can say that the decline has unfolded a 3-wave down leg hence the current down leg is either wave (3) of a larger impulsive decline or the wave (C) of a completed Zig Zag or the wave (W) of a larger Double Zig Zag. Therefore Elliott Wave wise I don't know if the correction is over, but what has a great importance is that the price action of the last five weeks seems to be forming a "base" that could allow to fill some of the space of the huge gap down of the third week of October hence a retracement of the last down leg would be doable (Either as a wave 4 or wave X).

IBM Weekly Chart
Larger Image

In the daily chart we can see that it is poking its "head" above the trend line resistance of the last lower highs with two consecutive trading sessions above both the 10 d ma and 20 d ma.

Tight Bollinger Bands are suggesting that a large move is in the cards.

The Stochastic has room to the upside before entering the overbought zone.

Levels above:

Pivot Resistance = 165.66
Gap 1 Fill = 169.10
50 dma= 171.418
0.382 R - 0.5 R = 173.27-177.43

Support: 10 dma = 161.975

IBM Daily Chart
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Regarding the short-term time frame, im my opinion, it seems probable that it is unfolding a Zig Zag with the wave (C) being established with a thrust following a Triangle.

The corrective structure is suggesting that we don't have a major bottom but the pattern can remain constructive as it can morph in a much larger Double Zig Zag.

IBM 15-Minute Chart
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