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Predictions for 2015

Dollar strength continues after a brief pause against all major currencies except the yen. With the Euro decisively breaking the long term support of 1.20.

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

Yen strength should result in a bout of carry trade liquidation that is a major negative for risk assets such as emerging market currencies and commodities.

AUD/JPY

INR/JPY

GLD

Despite slowing growth in most emerging economies, policy makers have their hands tied and spend a whole lot of resources defending their weak currencies unsuccessfully with higher interest rates.

USD/RUB

This in turn sparks a major exodus of FII money flows out of emerging economies like the BRIC countries which causes their stock markets to significantly under perform despite their terrific performance in 2014 and greedy analysts calls for more.

NSEI

BVSP

Volatility surges in 2015 as the Vix index doubles following a major take down of stock market indices across the globe.

VIX

Risk free assets will be among the safer bets in 2015 as risk appetites significantly wanes with treasury yields continuing to plummet with QE forever still continuing but without the desired outcomes.

TNX

TYX

 

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