"No warning can save people determined to grow suddently rich" - Lord Overstone

  • 2 days Major League Baseball Turns To Blockchain Tech
  • 3 days Institutional Investors Hold A Lot More Crypto Than You Think
  • 3 days U.S. Treasury Yields Could Be About To Break Out
  • 3 days Tesla Stock Stumbles On Model 3 Cancellations
  • 3 days Yuan Rebounds At The Expense Of The U.S. Dollar
  • 3 days Iraq Unplugged: No Internet, No Protests, No Money
  • 3 days The Tariff War Could Spark A Debt Crisis In China
  • 4 days Gold Selloff Continues As Dollar Climbs Higher
  • 4 days Gold Investors In A Frenzy Over Sunken Russian Warship
  • 4 days The New King Of Electric Cars
  • 4 days BlackRock Goes Bitcoin
  • 4 days U.S. Banks See Best Earnings Report In Years
  • 4 days The Case For Gold Is Not About Price
  • 4 days Stock Market Sentiment Turns Bullish
  • 5 days What Is Bitcoin Really Supposed To Be?
  • 5 days The Surprising Media Giant Taking On Netflix
  • 5 days Cybersecurity Stocks Are Red-Hot As Election Looms
  • 5 days Americans Grow Weary Of U.S. Trade Policy
  • 5 days What Putin Really Wants From Trump
  • 5 days Europe’s EV Sales Growth Is Slowing
Netflix Shock Hits FAANG Stocks Hard

Netflix Shock Hits FAANG Stocks Hard

Netflix released its surprising second…

Chinese IPO Fervor Slows As Xiaomi Disappoints

Chinese IPO Fervor Slows As Xiaomi Disappoints

The Chinese IPO space was…

The Surprising Media Giant Taking On Netflix

The Surprising Media Giant Taking On Netflix

Professional wrestling is not often…

Ed Carlson

Ed Carlson

Ed Carlson, author of George Lindsay and the Art of Technical Analysis, and his new book, George Lindsay's An Aid to Timing is an independent…

Contact Author

Tradable Rally in Commodities

Throughout 2014 my commentaries warned of no bottom in commodities until near year-end. Gold got an early start in November but, looking at the S&P GS commodity index, it appears the remainder of that group found a low in January. However, while this may be a tradable rally, cycles point to the bear market getting started again by later this year.

February looks positive for commodities until an 18 week cycle high comes due near the first week of March. While the index can be expected to have its ups and downs throughout the year, the trend should be up until a 22 month cycle high in October after which a 3 year cycle will begin to exert a downward pull into a low no sooner than year end (chart).

Globally traded commodities are priced in US dollars and thus are expected to price inversely to the dollar. A 40 week cycle low due, ideally, in September is close enough to the 22 month cycle high in commodities due in October to lend confidence to the forecast for a tradable rally in commodities until this fall. Last Thursday was a short-term cycle low in the dollar but the next short cycle high is due this Friday.

S&P GS Commodity Index
Larger Image

 


The February Lindsay Report is now available at Seattle Technical Advisors.com

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment