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The State of the Trend

Two weeks ago we warned that after rallying during the strong seasonality window in February, the major averages will enter a sideways/down phase.

A few days later, on February 25th we followed up on our blog with an SP500 chart showing areas of support and resistance. The updated version of this chart which shows dates of jobs reports for the last seven months in blue, tells an interesting story and gives us clues about what to expect next week:

S&P500 Chart Chart
Larger Image

When the indices sold off on the day of the jobs report (Friday), they had a strong snapback rally the following Tuesday (December, January and February). When the indices rallied on the day of the report, they sold off the following Monday and Tuesday, and had a snapback rally on Wednesday (September and October).

Trend Bars™, once again, did a great job at detecting the subtle changes in trend, despite choppy market action at the end of February and the beginning of January:

SPDR S&P500 ETF Trend Bars Chart
Chart courtesy of OT Seasonal

The gold ETF broke below the 50% retracement of the '08 - '10 upswing at 113.6 and is threatening to cascade lower to the next 50% retracement level:

Gold ETF Chart
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