Make my day punk! Do you feel lucky? Was it 5 or 6 ? (Quote Clint Eastwood). Which one would you choose as BUY and HOLD?
The stats folks
- Dow Jones Industrials rally for 72 months (6 years)
- Gold correction for 43 months (or 3 and 3/4 years)
The charts below show the Rate of Change (ROC) based on the 72 and 43 months for each.
The 1929 Rate of Change for the Dow Jones hit 300%, the straight line burst up (2015) to get to 300% would mean the Dow Jones between 28,000 and 32,000 in the next 2 to 3 years. To hit 200% means a Dow Jones between 19,000 and 21,000 in the next 2 to 3 years, this is more likely than 1929 play book.
If gold mirrors the 1980s move at 300% to 450%, this would estimate gold to reach from current levels between 5,000 to 6,000 (USD) an once in 43 months.
- GOLD, as it is over sold, more gains to the upside.
- Dow Jones, the easy gains are over, but not all gains are over, and there is the income (dividend) option.
- A balance mix of both. If you cant decide. Sure why not. But take care on your allocation of risk.
Folks, it is time for serious pause during 2015. If you have GREEN on the screen, it may be time to turn GREEN into cash.
Down Jones with 72 months Rate of Change
Gold with 43 months Rate of Change
"The market always tells you what to do. It tells you: Get in. Get out. Move your stop. Close out. Stay neutral. Wait for a better chance. All these things the market is continually impressing upon you, and you must get into the frame of mind where you are in reality taking your orders from the action of the market itself -- from the tape." ~ Richard D. Wyckoff
"The four most dangerous words in investing are 'This time it's different' " ~ John Templeton