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Lara Iriarte

Lara Iriarte

I have been using the Elliott wave principle to analyse up to five markets a day since 2008. I began Elliott Wave Forex (originally ForexInfo.us)…

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US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis

While Gold may be in a consolidation phase and difficult to analyse, US Oil has been behaving exactly as expected.

Summary: The corrective structure is now clearer. The higher target zone of 59.07 - 61.57 is almost reached. The structure is incomplete. The target remains the same.

Oil Weekly Wave Count
Larger Image

Intermediate wave (4) may not move back into intermediate wave (1) price territory above 91.76.

Draw a channel about this downwards movement using Elliott's first technique: draw the first trend line from the ends of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy on the high of intermediate wave (2). I would expect intermediate wave (4) to find resistance at the upper edge of the channel, and it may end there.

Intermediate wave (2) was a deep 78% double combination. Given the guideline of alternation I would expect intermediate wave (4) to be more shallow. It is now an almost complete expanded flat correction.

Intermediate wave (4) would be most likely to end at either the or 0.382 Fibonacci ratio at 61.57 if it gets that high. This is the upper edge of the target zone.

Oil Daily Wave Count
Larger Image

Intermediate wave (4) is unfolding as an expanded flat correction. Minor wave B is a 115% correction of minor wave A. Minor wave C would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave A at 59.07. This is the lower edge of the target zone.

Minor wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure. So far within it minute wave iii is incomplete. Minor wave C needs minute waves iii, iv and v to complete.

Within minute wave iii minuette wave (iv) looks like it is subdividing as a triangle. It may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory below 52.49.

When the triangle is complete for minuette wave (iv) (it may already be complete, if not it should be over very soon) then minuette wave (v) up should complete minute wave iii.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory below 50.43.

When minute wave iii is complete redraw the channel: the first trend line from the high labelled minute wave i to wherever minute wave iii ends, then a parallel copy on the low of minute wave ii. Use this channel to show where minute wave iv may find support, and where minute wave v up may find resistance.

Only after the structure for minor wave C can be seen as a complete impulse, then when that channel is clearly breached by a full daily candlestick below it and not touching the lower trend line, that shall provide earliest confirmation that intermediate wave (4) is finally over and intermediate wave (5) down has begun.

So far intermediate wave (4) is in its twelfth week. It may end in one more week to total a Fibonacci thirteen.

 

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