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Oil: Review of Elliott Wave / Technical Pattern

Monthly time frame:

  • We should consider the current advance as a countertrend rebound
  • So far we have a wide range bullish monthly candlestick
  • The support is located at 54.20
  • Above there is a large "pocket of air" until the 0.382 retracement of the down leg from the June 2014 lower high

Monthly Oil Chart
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Weekly time frame:

  • After six consecutive weekly higher highs, with the upper Bollinger at 58.90, oil is now a bit stretched
  • Last week potential Spinning Top has not been confirmed yet since so far the small range body could belong to a continuation patter (As long as the gap at 56.14 is not closed)
  • If the gap were closed a test of the breakout now support at 54 would be probable
  • If the support at 54 does not hold the up-trend from the March low will not be jeopardized as long as the 20 wma which today stands at 51 is not breached

Weekly Oil Chart
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  • Weekly oscillators are getting overbought: RSI(5) and Stochastic are now in the cautious zone.

Weekly Oil Momentum Chart
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Daily time frame:

  • As long as the support at 55.70 is not breached it seems probable that the price action highlighted in the green box looks more like a continuation pattern rather than a distribution one

Daily Oil Chart
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  • Daily oscillators are flashing warnings with the stochastic bearish signal cross and the MACD approaching its signal cross

Daily Oil Momentum Chart
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60 minute time frame:

  • If 56.07 holds, Oil could be forming a Triangle with a measured target for the thrust at 60
  • If the Triangle pans out once the thrust is set and done odds would favor at least a Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the March low

Hourly Oil Chart
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