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Paul Rejczak

Writer, Sunshine Profits

Stock market strategist, who has been known for quality of his technical and fundamental analysis since the late nineties. He is interested in forecasting market…

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Stock Trading Alert: Indexes Continue To Fluctuate Along Record Levels - Which Direction Is Next?

Stock Trading Alert originally published on May 4, 2015, 6:36 AM:


 

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,140, and profit target at 1,980, S&P 500 index)

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

The U.S. stock market indexes gained between 1.0% and 1.5% on Friday, retracing their recent move down, as investors reacted to economic data, quarterly corporate earnings releases. The S&P 500 index extends its short-term fluctuations along the level of 2,100. It remains relatively close to April 27 all-time high of 2,125.92. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,120-2,125. On the other hand, support level is at 2,080-2,090, marked by previous local lows, among others. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we still can see some negative technical divergences:

S&P500 Daily Chart
Larger Image

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are slightly positive, with index futures currently up 0.1-0.2%. The main European stock market indexes have gained 0.4-0.9% so far. Investors will now wait for the Factory Orders number announcement at 10:00 a.m. The S&P 500 futures contract (CFD) is in an intraday uptrend, as it retraces last week's move down. The nearest important level of resistance is at 2,115-2,120, and support level is at 2,090, among others, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

S&P500 15-Minute Chart
Larger Image

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract (CFD) follows a similar path, as it retraces last week's move down. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 4,480-4,500. On the other hand, support level remains at 4,400, as the 15-minute chart shows:

NASDAQ 100 Futures 15-Minute Chart
Larger Image

Concluding, the S&P 500 index retraced its recent move down, as investors reacted to economic data announcements, quarterly corporate earnings releases. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we continue to maintain our speculative short position (2,098.27, S&P 500 index), as we expect a downward correction or an uptrend reversal. Stop-loss is at 2,140, and potential profit target is at 1,980. You can trade S&P 500 index using futures contracts (S&P 500 futures contract - SP, E-mini S&P 500 futures contract - ES) or an ETF like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF - SPY. It is always important to set some exit price level in case some events cause the price to move in the unlikely direction. Having safety measures in place helps limit potential losses while letting the gains grow.

Thank you.

 

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