• 657 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 657 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 659 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,059 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,063 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,065 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,068 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,069 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,070 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,071 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,072 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,075 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,076 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,077 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,079 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,079 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,082 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,083 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,083 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,085 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Earnings season is well underway,…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

How Millennials Are Reshaping Real Estate

How Millennials Are Reshaping Real Estate

The real estate market is…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Household Spending Growth Expectations Plunge; Recession Already Started?

Every month the Fed does a Survey of Consumer Expectations for inflation, earnings growth, income growth, and consumer spending growth.

In the microeconomic data overview, the Fed provided charts for the first three sets of expectations. I downloaded the data and created my own chart of spending expectations.

First let's consider some details from the report. Emphasis mine.

The results from the April 2015 Survey of Consumer Expectations indicate that one-year ahead inflation expectations fell while three-year ahead inflation expectation increased. The median one-year and three-year ahead expected rates of inflation now stand at 2.7% and 3.0%, respectively. While earnings and household income growth expectations were largely unchanged, median household spending growth expectations retreated significantly from the last month.


Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations


Earnings Expectations

Earnings Expectations


Income Expectations

Income Expectations


Household Spending Expectations

Household Spending Expectations


Spending Analysis

In spite of rising earnings and income estimates, "median household spending growth expectations retreated significantly from the last month" in the Fed's words.

In general, I do not place much faith in these estimates, especially inflation expectations. That said, the spending estimates do ring true with weak economic data that we have seen for six months.

Should these spending projections prove to be correct, a US recession that few if any economists see coming, has already started.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment