• 509 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 509 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 511 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 911 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 916 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 918 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 921 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 921 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 922 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 924 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 924 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 928 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 928 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 929 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 931 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 932 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 935 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 936 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 936 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 938 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Durable Goods Charts Seven Ways

Reader Tim Wallace sent a series of four charts on durable goods components. Each chart compares April of this year to April in prior years.


Durable Goods Shipments

Durable Goods Shipments
Larger Image

This is the first time since 2008 that April year-over-year shipments are down.


Durable Goods New Orders

Durable Goods New Orders
Larger Image

This is the first time since 2008 that year-over-year new orders in April declined. New orders rose above the pre-recession high but are now slightly below the 2007 high.


Durable Goods Unfilled Orders

Durable Goods Unfilled Orders
Larger Image

Unfilled orders keep climbing. They are at a record high.


Durable Goods Inventory

Durable Goods Inventory
Larger Image

Durable goods inventory is near a record high.

The above charts show nominal prices, not adjusted for inflation. Adjusted for inflation, shipments and new orders are well below pre-recession levels.

Over time, shipments and orders should match unless there are cancellations.

Unfilled orders are a reflection on aircraft orders that have a very long lead time and are subject to cancellation. Here is a chart I created in Fred that explains unfilled orders.


Unfilled Orders Breakdown

Unfilled Orders Breakdown
Larger Image

Blue - Unfilled Orders Total
Green - Unfilled Transportation Orders
Red - Unfilled Orders Excluding Transportation

Unfilled orders except for transportation are meandering along.

New orders is the primary story.

To weed out the possibility that April of 2015 was some sort of outlier, let's look at some seasonally adjusted growth charts.


Durable Goods New Orders Percent Change From Year Ago

Durable Goods New Orders Percent Change From Year Ago
Larger Image


Durable Goods New Orders Excluding Transportation Percent Change From Year Ago

Durable Goods New Orders Excluding Transportation Percent Change From Year Ago
Larger Image

Durable goods orders are a volatile series, in large part due to huge transportation orders but conditions have been weak ever since November of 2014.


Durable Goods Growth From Year Ago

  • November 2014: -0.61%
  • December 2014: -0.77%
  • January 2015: +3.19%
  • February 2015: -3.24%
  • March 2015: -0.70%
  • April 2015: -2.80%


Durable Goods Growth From Year Ago Excluding Transportation

  • November 2014: +4.33%
  • December 2014: +5.63%
  • January 2015: +1.81%
  • February 2015: -0.44%
  • March 2015: -1.97%
  • April 2015: -1.63%

Excluding transportation, the numbers look better. Yet even excluding transportation, year-over-year new orders have been very weak all year.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment