• 11 hours Trump Was Right About The Dollar
  • 14 hours Is Silver Gearing Up For A Rally?
  • 17 hours World’s Largest Hedge Fund Turns Bullish On Gold
  • 19 hours It’s Time To Spend More On Clean Energy R&D
  • 1 day Contrarian Investors Are Beating The Stock Market
  • 2 days Bulgaria’s Revenue Agency Falls Victim To Biggest Cyber Heist In History
  • 2 days Amazon Faces European Union Anti-Trust Probe
  • 2 days Commodities Are Having A Stellar Year
  • 2 days Bezos’ Next Big Project Could Be Worth $100 Billion Per Year
  • 3 days 3,600 Years Later, Climate Change Turns Mammoths Into $40M Market
  • 3 days Tesla, Apple Claim China Is Stealing Intellectual Property
  • 3 days EV Giants Duke It Out For Battery Dominance
  • 3 days Tech Billionaire Takes Aim At Google
  • 4 days Chinese Police Bust Largest Ever Illicit Crypto Mining Operation
  • 4 days Expect A Pullback Before Gold's Next Major Rally
  • 4 days Why Interest On Gold Matters
  • 4 days Ten Extravagant Food Items For The Wealthy Only
  • 5 days Why Saudi Arabia Won't Give Up On The Aramco IPO
  • 5 days $32 Million Crypto Heist Halts Tokyo Exchange
  • 6 days Is A Gold Selloff Looming?
The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

Modern monetary theory has been…

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Welcome to Art Basel: The…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Why I am Ultra Bearish over The Long Term

Some interesting developments are playing out in long term charts that make me feel comprehensively bearish over the long term:

a) Firstly a massive rising wedge is forming on the long term S and P 500 chart. This is much bigger than that observed in 2000 or 2008 and just a matter of time before it breaks to the downside with profound consequences. A major bear market could ensue post the break. Chart courtesy of StockTwits.com:

EURJPY Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis Chart
Larger Image

b) Secondly Margin Debt is at record levels and has eclipsed levels seen during the maniacal peaks of 2000 and 2008. Once the above rising wedge breaks you could have a rush for the exit triggered by margin calls. Chart courtesy disqus.com:

NYSE Investor Credit and the Market

c) Thirdly despite multiple dosages of Quantitative easing (QE) from global central banks the velocity of money is below the levels observed during the Great Depression. This implies that changes in money supply will have little impact on the economy going forward. Further QE's are likely but won't really stimulate the global economy. Chart source armstrongeconomics.com.

GDPA/AMBNS

The above developments taken together with ongoing bear markets in several key asset classes make for a deflationary collapse increasingly likely in the not too distant future.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment