• 253 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 254 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 255 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 655 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 660 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 662 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 665 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 665 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 666 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 668 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 668 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 672 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 672 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 673 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 675 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 676 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 679 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 680 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 680 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 682 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Lending: The Good, Bad, And Ugly

Lending: The Good, Bad, And Ugly

Aristotle said, “The most hated…

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Stocks sold off last week…

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Final Rally in the Dollar

DXY gained 1.46% last week to close at 95.65 back above its 34-dma as well as its mid-June reaction high (a higher high) giving hope to the bulls that the final rally is upon us. Despite the bearish seasonality of July, cycles indicate that the Dollar is set for one "last hurrah" prior to a "summer swoon" a month from now.

Cycles target a turn near July 24 and are a good match for the cycle low in TNX (yield on the 10 year US Treasury note) expected then. A 40 week cycle low is expected in late Sept (similar to cycle high in TNX) but an annual cycle shows a low in Feb and is a better match with a 3yr cycle.

Short-term cycles this week are a bit difficult to read but a close below Thursday's low at 95.26 will convince me that the trend, until closer to July 9, is still down.

A symmetrical triangle on the monthly chart measures a minimum move to 102.00 which is the 61.8% retracement of the 2002 bear market. 102.00 is also a 127.2% retracement of the Apr/May decline.

US Dollar Index
Larger Image


 

To take a "sneak-peek" at SeattleTA research click here.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment