• 17 hours Will Bezos Buy The Seattle Seahawks?
  • 24 hours 6 Tech Trends Transforming The Travel Industry
  • 2 days Ousted Uber CEO Cashes Out $500 Million In Stock
  • 2 days Trump Prepares For Another Key Tariff Decision
  • 2 days The Free Money Bubble Is About To Burst
  • 3 days The Crushing Reality Of Poverty In America
  • 3 days Should You Buy Into The World’s Largest IPO?
  • 3 days The Infinite Possibilities Of Cosmic Energy
  • 4 days Analysts Link Walking To Economic Growth
  • 5 days Will Japan Turn Its Back On The Aramco IPO?
  • 6 days Global Debt Soars To $188 Trillion
  • 6 days The World's Largest Gold Miners Are Getting Creative
  • 7 days Twitter: The Saudi Spy Tool To Bring Down Dissidents
  • 7 days Broad Commodity Funds Don’t Give Enough Exposure To Gold
  • 8 days Here We Go Again: Another Giant Telecoms Mega-Merger
  • 8 days World's Largest Gold Miner Sees Profits Triple
  • 9 days Microsoft Japan Trials 4 Day Work Weeks, Productivity Soars By 40%
  • 9 days Hedge Funds Lose $4 Billion In Four Days As California Wildfires Rage On
  • 10 days New Viral App May Be A National Security Threat In Disguise
  • 10 days China's $10 Trillion Space Play
Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

Ed Carlson

Ed Carlson

Ed Carlson, author of George Lindsay and the Art of Technical Analysis, and his new book, George Lindsay's An Aid to Timing is an independent…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Final Rally in the Dollar

DXY gained 1.46% last week to close at 95.65 back above its 34-dma as well as its mid-June reaction high (a higher high) giving hope to the bulls that the final rally is upon us. Despite the bearish seasonality of July, cycles indicate that the Dollar is set for one "last hurrah" prior to a "summer swoon" a month from now.

Cycles target a turn near July 24 and are a good match for the cycle low in TNX (yield on the 10 year US Treasury note) expected then. A 40 week cycle low is expected in late Sept (similar to cycle high in TNX) but an annual cycle shows a low in Feb and is a better match with a 3yr cycle.

Short-term cycles this week are a bit difficult to read but a close below Thursday's low at 95.26 will convince me that the trend, until closer to July 9, is still down.

A symmetrical triangle on the monthly chart measures a minimum move to 102.00 which is the 61.8% retracement of the 2002 bear market. 102.00 is also a 127.2% retracement of the Apr/May decline.

US Dollar Index
Larger Image


 

To take a "sneak-peek" at SeattleTA research click here.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment