The good news is:
• The market is very oversold and due for a bounce.
The negatives
The market appears to have run out of time.
Historically the first 6 months (lasting until mid July) in the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle are the strongest of the entire 4 year cycle. This year all of the major indices were up less than half of their average gains for the period and most of them were down in 3 of the 6 months.
Over the past year and a half, with interest rates at 0, there has been very little selling i.e. downside volume and new lows have been minimal. That changed last week when, in spite of a holiday (usually a positive), downside volume soared and new lows held at threatening levels all week.
Seasonally the period from mid July through the 1st week of August has been weak so the next month has little to recommend it.
The chart below covers the past 6 months showing the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NYSE new highs divided by new highs + new lows (NY HL Ratio), in blue. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator, the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level.
NY HL Ratio finished the week at a very weak 27% and over the past 3 months has established a pattern of lower highs and lower lows.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in blue and OTC HL Ratio has been calculated from NASDAQ data.
OTC HL Ratio fell into negative territory as new lows exceeded new highs every day last week.
The next chart covers the past year showing the SPX in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new lows (NY NL), in blue. NY NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing new lows move the indicator upward (up is good).
Moving sharply downward, this is the scariest chart of all.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC NL has been calculated from NASDAQ data.
OTC NL has been holding up much better than NY NL, but it dropped to its lowest point in several months.
The market is running out of Aces.
The positives
Seasonality for the coming week is positive. Short term breadth indicators and prices are oversold so a bounce is likely.
Seasonality
Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 2nd Friday of July during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle.
The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis for the 5 trading days prior to the 2nd Friday of July during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle.
OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2014 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2014 There are summaries for both the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.
Average returns for the coming week have been positive by all measures.
Report for the week before the 2nd Friday of July.
The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.
Daily returns from Monday to 2nd Friday.
| OTC Presidential Year 3 | ||||||
| Year | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thur | Fri | Totals |
| 1963-3 | 0.21% | -0.27% | 0.30% | 0.29% | 0.12% | 0.65% |
| 1967-3 | 0.71% | 0.23% | 0.70% | -0.18% | 0.25% | 1.72% |
| 1971-3 | 0.00% | 0.42% | 0.71% | 0.37% | 0.44% | 1.95% |
| 1975-3 | 0.44% | 0.48% | -0.69% | -0.30% | -0.13% | -0.20% |
| 1979-3 | 0.37% | -0.13% | -0.09% | -0.12% | -0.12% | -0.09% |
| 1983-3 | 0.00% | -1.38% | 0.63% | -0.04% | 0.18% | -0.62% |
| 1987-3 | 0.12% | 1.08% | 0.02% | 0.46% | 0.20% | 1.89% |
| 1991-3 | 1.15% | 0.86% | 0.73% | 0.25% | 0.89% | 3.88% |
| Avg | 0.52% | 0.18% | 0.12% | 0.05% | 0.21% | 0.97% |
| 1995-3 | 0.71% | -0.66% | 1.90% | 0.56% | 0.52% | 3.03% |
| 1999-3 | 0.00% | -0.15% | 0.23% | 1.05% | 0.76% | 1.89% |
| 2003-3 | 1.20% | -0.09% | -0.30% | -2.86% | 0.62% | -1.43% |
| 2007-3 | 0.13% | -1.16% | 0.48% | 1.88% | 0.20% | 1.53% |
| 2011-3 | 0.00% | 0.35% | 0.29% | 1.36% | -0.45% | 1.55% |
| Avg | 0.68% | -0.34% | 0.52% | 0.40% | 0.33% | 1.32% |
| OTC summary for Presidential Year 3 1963 - 2011 | ||||||
| Avg | 0.56% | -0.03% | 0.38% | 0.21% | 0.27% | 1.21% |
| Win% | 100% | 46% | 77% | 62% | 77% | 69% |
| OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2014 | ||||||
| Avg | 0.05% | -0.12% | 0.35% | 0.29% | 0.41% | 0.96% |
| Win% | 68% | 50% | 61% | 65% | 75% | 67% |
| Year 2 | ||||||
| Year | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thur | Fri | Totals |
| 1954-2 | 0.00% | 1.12% | 0.07% | 0.00% | 0.67% | 1.85% |
| 1958-2 | -1.27% | -0.07% | 0.31% | 0.66% | 0.48% | 0.12% |
| 1962-2 | 0.68% | 1.15% | 0.93% | 0.52% | -0.34% | 2.93% |
| 1966-2 | 0.00% | 0.25% | 1.44% | 0.37% | 0.26% | 2.32% |
| 1970-2 | -0.12% | -0.08% | 1.09% | 1.48% | 1.77% | 4.13% |
| 1974-2 | -3.07% | 0.48% | -1.83% | -0.13% | 4.08% | -0.46% |
| Avg | -0.95% | 0.35% | 0.39% | 0.58% | 1.25% | 1.81% |
| 1978-2 | 0.40% | 0.69% | 0.32% | 0.01% | 1.38% | 2.81% |
| 1982-2 | 0.00% | -0.33% | -0.07% | 0.29% | 1.21% | 1.10% |
| 1986-2 | -1.70% | -1.87% | 0.58% | 0.45% | 0.12% | -2.41% |
| 1990-2 | 0.31% | -0.84% | 1.33% | 1.17% | 0.51% | 2.47% |
| 1994-2 | 0.00% | 0.04% | -0.05% | 0.50% | 0.26% | 0.75% |
| Avg | -0.33% | -0.46% | 0.42% | 0.48% | 0.70% | 0.94% |
| 1998-2 | 0.08% | 1.06% | -0.24% | 0.78% | 0.23% | 1.91% |
| 2002-2 | -1.22% | -2.47% | -3.40% | 0.75% | -0.64% | -6.98% |
| 2006-2 | 0.15% | 0.41% | -1.09% | -1.30% | -0.49% | -2.32% |
| 2010-2 | 0.00% | 0.54% | 3.13% | 0.94% | 0.72% | 5.33% |
| 2014-2 | 0.48% | -0.19% | 0.42% | -1.18% | 1.03% | 0.55% |
| Avg | -0.13% | -0.13% | -0.23% | 0.00% | 0.17% | -0.30% |
| Avg | -0.48% | -0.01% | 0.18% | 0.35% | 0.70% | 0.88% |
| Win% | 55% | 56% | 63% | 80% | 81% | 75% |
| SPX Presidential Year 3 | ||||||
| Year | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thur | Fri | Totals |
| 1955-3 | 0.00% | 1.21% | 3.57% | -1.39% | 0.14% | 3.54% |
| 1959-3 | -0.83% | 0.24% | 0.07% | -0.30% | -0.37% | -1.20% |
| 1963-3 | -0.68% | 0.43% | -0.21% | -0.19% | -0.17% | -0.83% |
| 1967-3 | 0.39% | 0.47% | -0.09% | 0.02% | 0.35% | 1.14% |
| 1971-3 | 0.00% | -0.02% | 0.28% | 0.30% | 0.35% | 0.91% |
| Avg | -0.38% | 0.47% | 0.72% | -0.31% | 0.06% | 0.71% |
| 1975-3 | 0.56% | 0.44% | -1.05% | -1.04% | -0.46% | -1.54% |
| 1979-3 | 0.82% | -0.26% | -0.54% | -0.92% | -0.36% | -1.25% |
| 1983-3 | 0.00% | -1.37% | 1.13% | -0.55% | -0.29% | -1.07% |
| 1987-3 | -0.24% | 0.99% | -0.08% | 0.73% | 0.60% | 2.01% |
| 1991-3 | 1.03% | -0.48% | -0.10% | 0.33% | 0.87% | 1.65% |
| Avg | 0.54% | -0.14% | -0.13% | -0.29% | 0.07% | -0.04% |
| 1995-3 | 0.15% | -0.43% | 1.10% | 0.02% | -0.20% | 0.64% |
| 1999-3 | 0.00% | -0.22% | 0.56% | -0.11% | 0.64% | 0.87% |
| 2003-3 | 0.57% | -0.34% | -0.64% | -1.23% | 1.18% | -0.47% |
| 2007-3 | 0.09% | -1.42% | 0.57% | 1.91% | 0.31% | 1.46% |
| 2011-3 | 0.00% | -0.13% | 0.10% | 1.05% | -0.70% | 0.32% |
| Avg | 0.27% | -0.51% | 0.34% | 0.33% | 0.25% | 0.56% |
| SPX summary for Presidential Year 3 1955 - 2011 | ||||||
| Avg | 0.19% | -0.06% | 0.31% | -0.09% | 0.13% | 0.41% |
| Win% | 70% | 40% | 53% | 47% | 53% | 60% |
| SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2014 | ||||||
| Avg | 0.03% | -0.03% | 0.27% | 0.16% | 0.29% | 0.70% |
| Win% | 59% | 45% | 59% | 61% | 68% | 68% |
Money supply (M2)
The money supply chart was provided by Gordon Harms. M2 growth had a bump last week.
Conclusion
The market is oversold and due for a bounce, but the breadth indicators have all gone south. Risk is high.
I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday July 10 than they were on Thursday July 2.
Last weeks positive forecast was a miss.
This report is free to anyone who wants it, so please tell your friends. They can sign up at: http://www.stockmarket-ta.com/signup.html. If it is not for you, reply with REMOVE in the subject line.
These reports are archived at: http://www.safehaven.com/
Good Luck,
YTD W 9 / L 10 / T 7
