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Florian Grummes

Florian Grummes

Florian Grummes is studying and trading the Gold market since 2003. Parallel to his trading business he is also a very creative & successful composer,…

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Gold and Silver

1. Gold & Silver Update

Two weeks ago I expected only a minor setback in Gold. That was obviously wrong. Gold came all the way down to US$1,155.80 during last Thursday. But at least we saw a bounce from the lows which left a bull-hammer on the chart. With the greeks clearly rejecting the bailout conditions the next couple of days should be volatile and Gold's gap up could hold this time.

Overall I still think that the bear market is not yet over but I remain bullish for the next 1-3 months....

30-Day Commodity Performance

As you can see on this performance chart for the last month the agriculture sector has exploded to the upside. With these gains it's hard to imagine that Gold is going to crash soon. Instead higher prices in Wheat, Corn and Soybeans should translate into a higher Gold price during summer.


2. The Midas Touch Gold Model

Midas Touch Gold Model
Larger Image

My model switched to a bull signal three weeks ago but this signal lasted only one week. Already on the 23rd of June the bear signal was back on. If you want to have regular updates follow me on Facebook please.

The latest changes are a sell signal on the Gold in USD-Daily Chart and a buy signal from the Ratio Gold/Oil.

Overall the model is in Sell/Bear Mode but Gold CoT-Report as well as Gold Sentiment and Seasonality are supporting a summer-rally.


3. Gold Daily Chart

Daily Gold Chart

The bull hammer is clearly visible on the daily chart. It looks similar to the one four weeks ago. Therefore Gold should at least be able to post a rally towards the 50MA (US$1,189). Another short-term target could be the upper Bollinger Band (US$1,197) or the 200MA (US$1,204). The slow stochastic indicator is clearly oversold while the MACD sell signal looks indecisive. Overall due to the strong seasonality, the very pessimistic sentiment and a friendly CoT-report I see good chances for a summer-rally in the coming weeks that could take Gold towards US$1,200 and maybe even the very strong zone of resistance around US$1,240. Of course, as the overall bear market is still in place I would not expect too much of Gold and this summer-rally will surely not be an easy ride. As I have already explained the bears need a "fully staffed pain-train" again to push Gold sustainably below $1,170 on a daily close.

Short-term traders could go long below US$1,170 (or possibly even below US$1,168 should Gold close its new gap) but placing a tight stop at US$1,155. With a potential summer target at around US$1,240 this would give you a reasonable risk reward of 1 to 3.5. But don't expect this to be an easy ride although the potential for a sizable short squeeze is given at the moment. The mining stocks looking attractive here too!

As an investor I suggest to wait for another chance to accumulate physical Gold below $1,150 until you hold 10-20% of your net-worth in physical Gold and Silver as an insurance.


4. Long-term personal beliefs

The return of the precious metals secular bull market is moving step by step closer and should lead to the final parabolic phase (could start in summer 2015 or 2016 and last for 2-5 years or even longer). Before this can start Gold will need a final selloff down to $1,050-$980. My long-term price target for the DowJones/Gold-Ratio remains around 1:1. and 10:1 for the Gold/Silver-Ratio. A possible long-term price target for Gold remains around US$5,000 to US$8,900 per ounce within the next 5-8 years.

Fundamentally, as soon as the current bear market is over, Gold should start the final 3rd phase of this long-term secular bull market. 1st stage saw the miners closing their hedge books, the 2nd stage continuously presented us news about institutions and central banks buying or repatriating gold. The coming 3rd and finally parabolic stage will end in the distribution to small inexperienced new traders & investors who will be subject to blind greed and frenzied panic.

 


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