• 12 hours Is This The Big Biotech Bust?
  • 18 hours Funding Is The Biggest Hurdle For Clean Energy
  • 1 day Walmart Reaches Out To Chilean Government For Protection
  • 2 days The Most Exciting Gold Find Of The Decade
  • 2 days Mining Boom Sparks Deforestation Concerns
  • 2 days The Cannabis Culling Has Wall Street Disappointed
  • 3 days Vigilante Offers $100,000 Bounty To Hack Banks
  • 3 days The Dairy Industry Is Dying
  • 4 days The Most Impressive Electric Vehicle Of The Year
  • 5 days Gold Miners Are Having A Stellar Second Half
  • 6 days How 3D Printing Is Turning Each And Every Industry On Its Head
  • 6 days Is The $3.5 Trillion Healthcare Industry About To Get Much More Transparent?
  • 6 days Gamblers Are Betting Big On Trump’s Impeachment
  • 7 days Even Banks Can't Answer Aramco's Trillion Dollar Question
  • 7 days Will Bezos Buy The Seattle Seahawks?
  • 8 days 6 Tech Trends Transforming The Travel Industry
  • 8 days Ousted Uber CEO Cashes Out $500 Million In Stock
  • 9 days Trump Prepares For Another Key Tariff Decision
  • 9 days The Free Money Bubble Is About To Burst
  • 9 days The Crushing Reality Of Poverty In America
Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

Ashraf Laidi

Ashraf Laidi

AshrafLaidi.com

Ashraf Laidi is the author of "Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis: How to Profit from the Shifting Currents in Global Markets" - Wiley Trading.

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Stocks, Bonds, USD: What Rate Hike?

The US July jobs report was strong, or at least clearly better than the June report. 215K in NFP, 2.1% average hourly earnings y/y, unemployment rate unchanged at 5.3% and the participation rate also unchanged at 62.6%. The big rally in the US dollar was completely eroded, with EURUSD clawing back all of the 120-pips it lost immediately after the release. The only currencies not to end higher against the USD were CHF (due to renewed SNB jawboning), CAD (disappointing CAD jobs) and GBP and SEK.

Stocks, Bonds, USD: What Rate Hike?
Larger Image

Yields fall for 4th straight week

Our interpretation of the US jobs report is that it is strong enough to openthe door open for a September rate hike (in the event that August figures arestrong across the board), but not sufficiently strong to eliminate the debate,and thereby maintaining the probability for the Fed to hold in September andwait until December, for which more data will be required.

Consequently, US bond yields fall for the 4th straight week, testing below their 55 and 200-week moving averages. The 2.15% support should likely hold for now, but if the bond market is supposedly pricing higher chances for a September hike, then falling yields imply either the bond market does not agree, or/and it is anticipating slowing growth and weakening inflation ahead.

And what would happen to the existing bullishness in bonds by speculators, highlighted in our piece from earlier this week.

Into the weeklies for stock indices

It's time to ignore the daily chart and turn to the weekliesfor the Dow Jones Industrials Index and S&P500.  While the S&P500retests its 200-DMA, the DJIA has already fallen below both its 55 and 200-DMA, trading3.0% below the 200-DMA, the farthest away since November 2012—the yearwhen Apple began a 45% decline off its highs. The DJIA is also alreadytrading below its 55-WMA, dragged down by Chevron, Caterpillar, Exxon and Dupontbeing the worst performer in the index over the last 4 weeks.

Whether this means the next stop in the S&P500 is 2048, or the next stop in the DJIA is near its 100-WMA at 16,956, remains to be seen. Interestingly, both levels correspond to key levels of support. As long as hawkish members of the Fed continue to hint at rising odds of an autumn rate hike, stocks will not be helped.

This month will be filled with muscle-flexing speeches from most FOMC members. And stock won't like it.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment