Ashraf Laidi

AshrafLaidi.com

Contributor since: 18 Mar 2011

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• Spreads and Sentiment

  Published 16 May 2017 | viewed 0 times

  Putting aside hard and soft data, yield differentials continue to command FX markets as the German-US 10 year yield spread breaks above its 200-day MA…

• Silver, Gold and Broken Records

  Published 20 April 2017 | viewed 0 times

  We may have started to sound like a broken record with our repeated stance in favour of silver over gold over the last 6-9 months,…

• Monitoring Rising USD Patterns

  Published 09 March 2017 | viewed 0 times

  As we approach Friday's US jobs report, deemed by some as instrumental in determining the already surging odds of a Fed hike next week (and…

• Lala Land FX Assumptions

  Published 27 January 2017 | viewed 0 times

  The notion that Trump's planned protectionist measures (tariffs and border adjustment tax) will be USD-positive is founded on an unrealistic world - where Mexico, China…

• Will Gold Reverse again?

  Published 10 January 2017 | viewed 0 times

  Act Exp Prev GMT Consumer Prce Index (y/y) 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% Jan 10 1:30 Gold bulls may be exhaling again, while gold bears are silent.…

• Trading SP500: Reversal or Consolidation?

  Published 07 November 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Stepping away from US Elections and into the charts, the S&P500 looks to bounce off its 200-DMA after testing it for the 1st time in…

• Statistically Significant Death Cross?

  Published 18 May 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Will skeptics and backers of Death Cross finally unite? The S&P500 is currently showing a pattern seen in June 2008 and March 2001, both cases…

• Beware of March NFPs. They Have the Worst Record than any Other Month

  Published 31 March 2016 | viewed 0 times

  The table below shows the consistency of misses (actual figure below consensus forecasts) in March NFPs over the last three years. In fact, NFP figures…

• Market Friendly BoJ Action Means more Unfriendly CNY Devaluation

  Published 29 January 2016 | viewed 0 times

  The BoJ's decision to cut the interest rate on current account balances to -0.10% highlights the beginning of the end of Japan's asset purchase program…

• VIX Asleep as Weakness Escalates

  Published 15 January 2016 | viewed 0 times

  One notable reason the VIX is trading at only half the level seen in August (53.0), a time when equity indices plunged near today's levels…

• UK Jobs: No Pay, No Play

  Published 16 December 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Today's release of the UK jobs figures confirms the suspicions of the doves at the Bank of England, with earnings (pay) growth continuing to decline,…

• Soros' Reflexivity Gone Too Far

  Published 07 December 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Act Exp Prev GMT Fed Minneapolis's Narayana Kocherlakota speech Dec 04 21:00 Evidence of Soros' Theory of Reflexivity remaining prevalent in financial markets re-emerged this…

• Does Draghi's Coup Secure Yellen's Liftoff?

  Published 03 December 2015 | viewed 0 times

  To some, the ECB has underdelivered today by not only cutting rates by a smaller than expected 0.10 bp in the deposit rate to -0.3%…

• Will Fed Raise the Discount Rate Today?

  Published 23 November 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Will the Fed raise its discount rate at its previously unscheduled meeting for today? Thursday's post on the Federal Reserve's website that "an expedited, unscheduled…

• Sterling's 180 Turn

  Published 20 November 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Is it finally catching up with GBP? The British pound defied gravity during most of the week, shrugging disappointing figures on inflation, retail sales and…

• Aussie Jobs Soar, but Capex far from Done

  Published 12 November 2015 | viewed 0 times

  It's not the first time an Australian jobs report shows employment growth rise five times more than expected. Whether it will be revised downwards or…

• Bitcoin Doubles in 10 Months

  Published 02 November 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Bitcoin is on course for posting its 8th consecutive weekly gain (longest series of advances since late 2013) and is up 113% from its January…

• Brainard's Wake-up Call to Fed

  Published 13 October 2015 | viewed 0 times

  The growing inverse correlation between the frequency of Fed speeches and uniformity of the message on monetary policy action cannot be ignored. The newest member…

• Fed Must Thank China and EM

  Published 02 October 2015 | viewed 0 times

  The US September jobs report deals a significant blow to the notion of a 2015 Fed hike--against which we consistently disagreed throughout the year -…

• 180 in 50 Weeks. This is Different

  Published 01 October 2015 | viewed 0 times

  A lot has happened since that fateful October bottom in stocks, which was driven by a multitude of factors namely, market worries over end of…