• 3 hours Homeowners Experiment With Risky New Investment Trend
  • 6 hours U.S. Tech Stocks Look Increasingly Vulnerable
  • 9 hours De Beers To Expand World’s Most Profitable Diamond Mine
  • 11 hours Ford CEO Gets Raise After Massive Layoff Round
  • 1 day Germany’s Flirtation With Recession Could Cripple The Global Economy
  • 1 day Where To Look As Gold Miners Inch Higher
  • 2 days Google Faces Billions In Fines From European Regulators
  • 2 days The Energy Industry Has A Millennial Problem
  • 3 days Russian Banks Scramble For Sanction Loopholes
  • 3 days Gold ETFs Take A Hit After Four-Month Run
  • 4 days European Union Takes Aim At Ten New Tax Havens
  • 4 days Goldman Defends Trillion-Dollar Corporate Buyback Spree
  • 4 days $600 Billion At Risk As Boeing Fallout Continues
  • 4 days Venezuela Has Yet Another Crisis Developing
  • 5 days Wells Fargo Accused Of “Ongoing Lawlessness”
  • 5 days Hollywood Agency Returns $400M Investment To Saudi Wealth Fund
  • 5 days Why Twitter's CEO Is Backing A New Bitcoin Boom
  • 5 days U.S. Treasury To Employ “Extraordinary Measures” To Fend Off Default
  • 6 days Lobster, Golf Carts And Fidget Spinners: What’s In The Federal Budget?
  • 6 days Italy Launches New Welfare Experiment
Lending: The Good, Bad, And Ugly

Lending: The Good, Bad, And Ugly

Aristotle said, “The most hated…

The Chatroom Cartel Running Global Bond Markets

The Chatroom Cartel Running Global Bond Markets

Eight major banks have been…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

US Stock Market Mini Update

Reviewing the US stock market picture from a few different angles...

NFTRH been using the Equity Put/Call ratio to gauge pressure on the US stock market for all of 2015. Many people think that anxiety indicators like this and the VIX are contrary indicators (i.e. when they spike you buy the fear in the markets, which often does work well) but when smoothing out CPCE using a moving average (weekly EMA 20 in this case) you get a trend.

The market benefited over long stretches from the calm atmosphere and the down trend in put buying vs. call buying. One explanation is that the market felt safe in mommy and daddy's arms (Bernanke and Yellen, amidst 'peak confidence' in the Fed with a side of Goldilocks).

Then came transition and then came uptrend. The market has gone exactly sideways for all of 2015.

CBOE Options Equity Put/Call ratio Weekly Chart

Meanwhile, gold is breaking out vs. commodities, so a counter-cyclical message is back in play. Now, this has not stopped the market yet, as the implication has been to this point, a Goldilocks scenario for the US.

Gold:CRB Weekly Chart

Except that this time Palladium-Gold ratio, a cyclical indicator, has joined its bearish fellow above, in making a counter-cyclical turn.

Palladium/Gold Ratio Weekly Chart

As long as the stock market's price is in an uptrend, which it is, then that is the primary ruler of things. The Dow is in an uptrend because it has not violated the October low and it is at the weekly EMA 85, which has supported every routine correction since 2011.

Bullish % (faded into background) is another of those indicators you could consider a contrary indicator, i.e. buy the correction, but there is one notable difference between this instance and the previous ones where BP declined; in this case BP (a measure of market participation) has ground lower while the Dow went sideways before recently dropping. Previously, BP has plunged in concert with corrections.

Dow Weekly Chart

S&P 500 is more egregious, as it is still sideways and only testing the the first key moving average. This is a very thinned out market as the majority of components have been weak.

S&P500 Weekly Chart

Nasdaq 100 has a bigger divergence, still. Price has continued up, as fewer big tech captains do the heavy lifting.

NASDAQ100 Weekly Chart

As noted above, price is the ultimate decider and price has not yet decided. Dialing in the view of SPX to a daily once more, we note an index getting pinched between the daily SMA's 50 and 200. Price direction, up or down, will be coming soon.

S&P500 Daily Chart

 


Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com. Also, you can follow via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment