AUD/USD is still bouncing back after breaking the lower bound implied by the medium-term downtrend channel. Hourly resistance can be found at 0.7539 (03/07/2015 high) and stronger resistance is given at 0.7739 (01/07/2015 high). Nonetheless we think that the surge is temporary and we remain bearish on the pair.

In the long-term, there is no sign to suggest the end of the current downtrend. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view. In addition, we still note that the pair remains well below the 200-dma which confirms selling pressures.

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