• 96 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 101 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 103 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 106 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 106 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 107 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 109 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 109 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 113 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 113 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 114 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 116 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 117 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 120 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 121 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 121 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 123 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  • 124 days Europe’s Economy Is On The Brink As Putin’s War Escalates
  • 127 days What’s Causing Inflation In The United States?
  • 128 days Intel Joins Russian Exodus as Chip Shortage Digs In
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Are The Strongest SP Sectors Favoring The Bulls?

'Everything Is Not Rolling Over'

You may have heard the argument that the stock market looks better than many believe, based on the fact that several key sectors have not rolled over yet. For example, while the slope of the S&P 500's 200-day moving average is clearly negative, using the same gauge several market sectors look a bit better. The charts below show the 200-day moving averages for healthcare (XLV), consumer discretionary (XLY), technology (QQQ), and consumer staples (XLP).

XLV Daily Chart

XLY Daily Chart

QQQ Daily Chart

XLP Daily Chart


Adding Price Into Equation

While the 200-days in isolation shown above look better than the S&P 500's 200-day, if we add price back into the mix, things start to look more concerning. Consumer discretionary stocks have managed to reclaim their 200-day, which is a positive development. However, the 200-day remains very close by and the slope of the 200-day shows a very indecisive long-term trend (read vulnerable).

XLY Daily Chart

Tech stocks rallied back to their 200-day and thus far have failed to recapture the "long-term trend" demarcation line. It is not uncommon for markets to rally back to their 200-day during a correction or bear market, and then fail. Bulls want QQQ to recapture and hold above the 200-day, which may happen, but it has not yet.

QQQ Daily Chart

Consumer staples have a similar "bounce" look. Price is below a downward-sloping (bearish) 200-day moving average. Can it improve in the coming days? Sure it can, but we need to see it.

XLP Daily Chart

The song remains the same with healthcare. A sharp plunge below the 200-day followed by a bounce back to the 200-day. The chart below in its present form is not an encouraging look for stock market bulls.

XLV Daily Chart


How Do The "Leaders" Look From A Weekly Perspective?

Regular followers know we use a set of weekly moving averages to monitor the general state of trends. How do the S&P 500's strongest sectors look from this perspective? The answer is not good.

XLP Weekly Chart

XLY Weekly Chart

QQQ Weekly Chart

XLV Weekly Chart

While there is nothing magical about the 200-day or the weekly moving averages used above, they can help us better understand an ETF's risk/reward profile as described in this video clip using the S&P 500 in a bearish period (2008) and a bullish period (2009).


How Can We Use All This?

Under our approach, we need to see evidence of relevant improvement, which differs from a normal bounce or countertrend within the context of an ongoing downtrend. It is difficult to look at the weekly charts of the S&P 500's strongest sectors and say "that looks like it is improving". Ugly markets and ugly charts can begin to improve meaningfully at anytime. Therefore, we remain open to all outcomes, including bullish outcomes. The markets will guide us if we are willing to listen with a flexible, unbiased, and open mind.

Chris Ciovacco Tweet

 


This entry was posted on Wednesday, September 23rd, 2015 at 11:15 am and is filed under Stocks - U.S.. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment