• 3 hours Capital Gain vs. Capital Consumption
  • 5 hours Tesla’s Latest Battery Innovation Ready For Use In China
  • 22 hours China Targets Hong Kong As Cold War With US Heats Up
  • 2 days No Shirt, No Shoes, No Mask, No Service
  • 3 days Is Bitcoin Actually Worth The Energy It Uses?
  • 3 days Insurance Companies Are Turning People Away As COVID-19 Crisis Escalates
  • 3 days Mining Exploration To Drop By Nearly 30% Despite Gold Boom
  • 3 days Europe Set To Unveil Its $500 Billion 'Green Deal'
  • 4 days Major Diamond Mine Slashes Production
  • 4 days Social Security Could Dry Up In Less Than A Decade
  • 5 days Europe On The Brink Of Economic Crisis
  • 5 days Barrick Gold Launches Exploration Program In Japan
  • 5 days COVID-19 Is A Hacker’s Paradise
  • 5 days Why Big Finance Is Bailing On Fossil Fuels
  • 6 days A New Trade War Will Send Gold Even Higher
  • 6 days Could COVID-19 Lead To Authoritarianism?
  • 7 days The $30 Trillion Mega-Trend To Watch As Markets Bounce Back
  • 7 days Gold Soars To 7-Year Highs
  • 8 days From Smartphones To Smart VR Acquisition, Apple Pushes the Envelope
  • 10 days Why Covid-19 Won’t Kill The Renewable Revolution
What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Three Month Treasury Yields Turn Negative; Long End Flattening; Economy Strengthening or Recession Warning?

Curve Watcher's Anonymous points out 3-month treasury yields dipped briefly negative on several days recently.

Yield on the 3-month bond was negative again today. Here is a table I put together with Treasury Yield Quotes from Bloomberg.


Treasury Yields vs. Month and Year Ago

One could also use US Department of Treasury Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates to produce an end-of-day view as opposed to the intraday snapshop above and chart below.


Yield Curve vs. Month Ago and Year Ago


Larger Image


Long End Flattening

The time line is not to scale, but the above chart still tells the correct story. In particular, note a negative rate at the front end and the flattening at the long end of the curve vs. a month ago and a year ago.


Economy Strengthening?

Three month treasuries should not be negative in a rate hike environment.

Yields at the short end of the curve, from 6-months to 2-years are slightly higher than a year ago, an indication of anemic hikes. But if hikes are coming, rates should not be lower than a month ago.

The yield on 6-month treasuries actually declined 19 basis point in past month.

Are hikes really coming?


Recession Warning

None of this should be happening in a rising rate environment with an allegedly strengthening economy.

In fact, action at the long end of the curve coupled with negative yields at the very front end is outright recessionary behavior.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment